Small Craft Advisory 161, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Current model runs are in general agreement over northern Alaska
through Wednesday.

Upper Air... A deep upper low centered 300 nm north of
Deadhorse will move to 450 nm north of the Mackenzie River Delta
by late Monday afternoon and to 200 nm northeast of Prince Patrick
Island by late Tuesday afternoon. A ridge extending from eastern
Siberia to Dall Point and southward will move eastward with the
ridge axis extending from the Chukchi Sea to the Upper Yukon
Valley and southward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska by early
Tuesday morning. An upper low 250 nm northwest of Shemya Island
will move to 100 nm southwest of St Matthew Island by late Tuesday
afternoon. Southwesterly wind flow will begin to increase across
the Alaska Range Monday evening and become southerly by late
Tuesday night. Southerly winds across the Alaska Range at 700 mb
are progged by the NAM12 to max out at 80-90 kt during the daytime
hours Wednesday.

Surface...
A 980 mb low centered 300 nm north of Deadhorse will move to 450
nm north of the Mackenzie Delta as a 985 mb low by late Monday
and weaken to a 995 mb center 200 nm northeast of Prince Patrick
Island by late Tuesday afternoon. A ridge across the western
interior will move to the eastern interior by Monday afternoon
and then eastward into Canada Monday night. A weather front
moving eastward across the Bering Sea will move eastward St
Lawrence Island-Dall Point and southward by late Monday afternoon.
The front will move across Norton Sound Monday evening. A 970 mb
low centered 250 nm northwest of Shemya Island will weaken to a
976 mb low centered 100 nm southwest of St Matthew Island by
Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds across the Alaska Range at 700
mb will max out at 80-90 kt during the daytime hours Wednesday.
There is potential for advisory level winds across the eastern
Alaska Range Wednesday, but it is too early at this time to issue
an advisory. Gusty sub-advisory winds through Alaska Range
passes are expected to develop Monday night.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...
High surf conditions are continuing along the Arctic coast,
and are expected to end on the western Arctic coast by midnight
tonight and along the eastern Arctic coast by noon Monday as
west winds start to decrease. The current Barrow sea ice cam
image shows a solid area of ice chunks pushed onto or near the
beach. Offshore there is mostly open water with a few ice chunks.
From Barrow west to Point Lay, a storm surge of around or a little
over 1 foot will begin to decrease later this evening. Along the
central and eastern Arctic coast, sea levels will gradually
increase through tonight. The highest storm surge is expected to
be near 2 feet from the Kaktovik area to Camden Bay, occuring late
this evening through early Monday morning. Strong west winds will
continue to produce high surf as high waves offshore break
onshore. There is continued potential for minor flooding in areas
on or near the east end of the Barter Island airport. There
will be a gradually decreasing chance of snow over the
coast and inland areas through Monday. Rain will be likely
in the western areas with a chance of mainly mixed rain and
snow elsewhere.

Central and eastern interior...
Isolated to scattered rain or snow showers along parts of the
Alaska Range tonight. A weakening front moving eastward will
bring rain to the upper Koyukuk valley and the southeastern
Brooks Range east of Arctic Village Monday, with a chance of rain
elsewhere from the Fairbanks area north and west. Rain will
continue in the upper Koyukuk valley and the southeastern Brooks
Range west of Arctic Village Monday night with a chance of rain in
most areas north and west of the Fairbanks area as another
weather front moves east. Gusty sub-advisory southerly winds will
develop in Alaska Range passes Monday night. There is potential
for winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph in passes in the eastern Alaska
Range Wednesday.

West coast and western interior...
A period of rain most areas tonight as a weakening weather front
moves eastward across the area. A stronger weather front will
bring more rain to the west coast Monday and Monday night and to
the western interior late Monday night and Tuesday. South winds
to 35 kt are expected to develop in Norton Sound early Monday
evening in advance of the front, shifting to southwest late
Monday night and decreasing by morning. This period of strong
winds will produce a storm surge of 2 to 3.5 feet along the
coast from Cape Denbeigh to the Bering Strait, the highest
surge values, about 3.5 feet, are expected along the coast
from west of Cape Darby to Cape Rodney, including the Nome area.
Waves to around 7 feet breaking onshore will cause elevated surf
west of Cape Darby.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. See main discussion
for short term coastal hazard potential.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF SEP 16