Small Craft Advisory 155, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
245 AM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z analysis and
verified well against the 06z analysis. Model spread continues to
be minimal in the the short and mid range and is reasonable in
the long range.

aloft at 500 hpa, a deep upper level low currently near the pole
will dive south along the dateline today and Saturday and will
reinforce a complex upper level trough over the eastern Bering Sea
and western Alaska with a weaker upper level low moving east over
southwest Alaska Saturday. An upper level ridge builds rapidly
over the Bering Sea Sunday. A strong shortwave rotating around the
upper level low north of Alaska moves east over the northwest
coast Today will sweep rapidly east and will be near Barrow by
early afternoon today and will exit the state later tonight.
Another strong short wave will approach the northwest coast
Saturday morning and will sweep east over the central North Slope
Saturday afternoon and over the eastern north slope and Brooks
Range Saturday night and Sunday. A weak front extending south into
the central interior will scattered rain and snow showers over the
central interior Sunday.

On the surface, a 988 mb low currently near Sand Point will
continue to weaken and move north and east to be located near
Kodiak Island as a 992 mb low this evening and near McGrath
Saturday morning as a 992 mb. A 994 mb low currently near Beaver
Creek in the Yukon will continue to weaken and move north and east
today. A cold front approaches the northwest coast this evening
and will spread light snow and scattered snow showers eastward
over the western and central north slope today.

A 980 mb low 200 nm northwest of Barrow Saturday evening will
bring another cold front to the northwest coast Saturday evening
and the eastern north slope Sunday morning. Several inches of snow
are expected in the eastern Brooks Range Sunday.

A 980 mb low with tropical origins moving into the western Bering
Sea Sunday evening will continue to deepen to around 976 mb as
the low moves east into the central Bering Sea. A triple point low
forms rapidly over the central Aleutians Monday morning as a warm
front pushes north over the Seward Peninsula. A strong occluded
front moves north and east Monday over the west coast with
significant wind and precipitation expected. Model solutions on
the developing Bering Sea storm continue to display considerable
spread on track and strength. Will need to monitor for potential
for strong onshore winds and possible coastal erosion along south
facing coasts Monday and Tuesday next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Model solutions on a
developing Bering Sea storm early next week continue to display
considerable spread on track and strength. Will need to monitor
for strong onshore winds and possible coastal erosion along south
facing coasts Monday and Tuesday next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC SEP 16