Small Craft Advisory 152, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
140 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite continues to exhibit minimal spread in the the
short range initializing well against the 00z analysis and verified
well against the 06z analysis. Model spread is reasonable in both
the mid range as well as the long range.

Aloft at 500 hpa, an upper level trough currently along a Banks
Island to Point Hope line will strengthen through Thursday evening
developing a 530 DAM low over the Bering Strait this evening. This
upper level low will deepen to around 528 DAM as is slips south to
be 100 nm south of St Lawrence Island Friday morning and over
Nunivak Island Friday evening. A 502 DAM low near the pole will
dive south along the Dateline Friday and will be located along the
Dateline near 75N Saturday morning. A 546 DAM ridge over southeast
interior Alaska will build north and east to be centered along the
ALCAN border this evening and over the Yukon Friday morning.

On the surface a weak lee side trough along the north slopes of
the Alaska Range will deepen as a front moving north and east
ahead of a 984 mb low near Adak moves over the Alaska Range
Thursday night and Friday morning and merges with the trough
Friday morning. A weak surface low around 995 mb develops near
Tok as the low currently near Adak moves north and east to be
located in Bristol Bay as a 988 mb Friday morning. Gusty winds
will develop along the north slopes of the Alaska Range today and
will continue into Friday morning but are expected to remain below
advisory levels.

A strong front moving southeast out of the Arctic Ocean will be
located along the northwest coast Friday morning and will move
east across the western North Slope Friday afternoon and the
central North Slope Friday night and the eastern North Slope
Saturday morning. Significant snow will spread across the North
Slope Saturday where several inches of snow are expected.

Gale force northeast winds will continue today south of St
Lawrence Island as the pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high
pressure system over Siberia and a 984 mb low over the central
Aleutians will continue through this evening and will subsiding to
small craft tonight. Gale force winds develop in the off shore
zones north of Barrow later tonight as a strong low pressure drops
south from near the pole.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CCC SEP 16