Small Craft Advisory 132, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
301 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The Omega block with its ridge over NW Alaska and the Chukchi Sea
will persist through Sat and then break down slowly next week as
a series of short wave troughs move from the high Arctic south
over Alaska. This will lead to a low amplitude long wave trough
developing over northern AK next week.

Sensible weather will remain warm and dry through Sun over the
Interior and West Coast of Alaska...while the North Slope will
have stratus and fog with areas of rain. Next week will see
temperatures falling and clouds and precipitation increasing
through the week over most of northern AK.

A short wave trough from Dawson to Tok will move along the Alcan
Border this afternoon and then move SE. There will be isolated
showers and mid level clouds along this trough.

A second short wave trough along the Arctic Coast of AK will move
to Old Crow to Kotzebue by 4pm Fri and to Eagle to Kotzebue by 4am
Sat. Expect only scattered to broken high clouds with this trough
except for some isolated showers along the Alcan Border with the
trough today and tonight.

Surface...
High Temperatures in the 60s to near 70 will persist over the
Interior and West Coast through Sun...with night time lows in the
30s and 40s. There is very patchy steam fog near lakes and rivers
in these areas this morning that will dissipate quickly. This
will happen again through the weekend in the coldest valleys.

A 1034 mb high over Wrangel Island has a ridge extending west
over the Arctic Coast of Alaska will move over the North Slope
Sat. Another ridge extending south over the Chukotsk Peninsula
will persist into Sat. Fog and Stratus under these ridges will
persist into Sat over the North Slope of Alaska and from Point
Hope to Gambell. These features are also causing NE winds 10-30kt
from Point Hope to Gambell into Sat.

A 999mb low in the high Arctic will move southeast to Banks
Island as a 1003 mb low by noon Sat. A warm front south of this
low will move to the southern Beaufort Sea late tonight. A cold
front stretching east of the low will move to the southern
Beaufort sea by noon Sat and then move SE Sat night. Westerly
Gales will accompany the front over marine zones 510 and 245 late
tonight and Sat. Expect rain with the cold front.

A second cold front will move southeast over the central Arctic
Coast of Alaska Sun bringing more rain on Sun.

An occluded front in the southern Bering Sea will move to the
Bristol Bay coast Sat...over the Yukon Delta Sat night...and to
southern Norton Sound Sun. This will spread rain to zones 214 and
215 late Sat and then spread a chance of rain north and east Sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well. start to see significant differences on
Fri night and Sat on the front that is approaching the eastern
Arctic Coast of Alaska. The GFS and ECMF bring the front south
fast than the NAM and with stronger winds. Prefer the GFS
solution as it matches up better with current Polar orbiting Sat
location in the high arctic.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued Warm and dry conditions through Sun.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers high but falling through the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.
&&

JB SEP 16