Small Craft Advisory 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

622 
FZAK51 PAFG 212208
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-221315-
208 PM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 500 NM PRUDHOE BAY WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST. A SERIES OF WEATHER
FRONTS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...STRENGTHENING THE
TROUGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE ALASKAN EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.

$$

PKZ225-221315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
208 PM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...EAST WINDS 15 KT TURNING SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
E WINDS 25 KT NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS
EVENING THEN TURNING SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-221315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
208 PM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...EAST WINDS 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT...EXCEPT WEST
WINDS 25 KT FROM ICY CAPE WEST DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-221315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
208 PM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-221315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
208 PM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT.
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-221315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
208 PM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS CALM. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS CALM. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS CALM. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS CALM.  

$$

DJH/JK MAY 16

618 
FZAK51 PAFG 221214
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT SUN MAY 22 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-230015-
414 AM AKDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 600 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA...STRENGTHENING THE TROUGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE
ALASKAN EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.

$$

PKZ225-230015-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
414 AM AKDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-230015-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
414 AM AKDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-230015-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
414 AM AKDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FREEZING FOG. SNOW.
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-230015-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
414 AM AKDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FREEZING FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. FREEZING FOG AND FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-230015-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
414 AM AKDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. RAIN.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AND FOG. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS CALM.  

$$

CCC/NTS MAY 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 AM AKDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z models continue to initialize well against the 00z
analysis and verify well against the 06z analysis. Model spread
between different models and model spread from run to run
continues to be minimal in the short range and reasonable in the
mid range. As with the last several days...spread in the long
range becomes significant by the middle of next week.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a 528 DAM low currently over St Matthew Island
elongate as it moves east to stretch from the Bering Strait to
Nunivak Island by Sunday morning. The low quickly becomes an open
wave as it continues to weaken and moves into the west coast and
western interior sunday. Zonal flow dominates over northern
alaska with a series of quick moving short waves bringing periods
of rain over much of northern alaska south of the brooks range.

On the surface a 1000 mb low currently located over norton sound
will continue to drift north and west and will be located over the
southern chukchi sea saturday evening. Chinook winds ahead of the
front will continue through this morning and then diminish this
afternoon. Upper level flow switches from relatively dry southerly
flow over the central and eastern interior to a moist southwest
to west flow through early next week.

Over the west coast and western interior, moisture along the
front associated with the low moving northwest out of Norton Sound
will continue to move east into the central interior this afternoon
and over eastern interior tonight. Storm total precipitation over
the western brooks range will be enhanced with up slope flow and
is currently progged to be in the one quarter to one half inch
range though Sunday morning. the Alaska Range is progged to
receive one half to three quarters of an inch of liquid. snow
levels will drop to near pass level saturday night and into sunday
in and near Denali Park however the heaviest precip should be
winding down by then.

The next round of precipitation moves onto the west coast Sunday
morning as a 1008 mb low moves northeast out of the northern
pacific to near Nunivak Island Sunday morning and over the Seward
Peninsula Sunday evening. Precipitation moves into the western
interior Sunday night and into the central interior Monday morning
and eastern interior monday afternoon as a weak low moves east
through the interior over a rounded ridge over the northern Gulf
of Alaska.

Large areas of open water just off shore of the eastern north
slope coast combined with east to northeast winds coming off of
the ice pack continues to created areas of dense fog along
portions of the central and eastern north slope coast. Ceilings
and visibility continue to change rapidly from VFR to LIFR making
aviation forecasts a challenge. Some improvement is expected as
winds pick up a slight southerly componet as front associated with
the low moving through the bering strait approaches from the
southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ongoing moist southwest flow over the west coast and western
interior will limit fire weather concerns into early next week.
The moist southwest flow will move into the central interior this
afternoon and evening and the eastern interior tonight limiting
fire weather concerns in these areas. Ongoing wind event in the
eastern alaska range will diminish later this morning. Minimum RH
values are expected to remain above criteria today limiting fire
weather concerns even in windiest locations along the eastern
Alaska Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Water levels continue to fall on the Porcupine River near Fort
Yukon. A Flood Watch continues through this afternoon for the
Colville River at Colville for an ice jam located 20 river miles
upstream of Colville. Water levels have receded slightly since
Thursday however flooding is possible in low lying areas of the
delta after the ice jam releases and a surge of water moves
downstream.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Flood Watch for AKZ203.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC MAY 16