Small Craft Advisory 119, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Wet pattern continues Tuesday for the west coast...the western
interior and the western and central Brooks Range.

The 00z models suite initialized well against the 00z analysis and
verified well against the 06z analysis. Minimal models spread was
noted in the short range however considerable model spread enters
into the model suite by Friday especially on the track and strength
of next low developing near the Gulf of Anadyr Thursday and moving
through the Bering Strait Friday.

Expected rainfall totals over western Alaska have diminished
today as compared to the last several days with most locations
expected to receive less than a quarter of an inch...however the
western Brooks Range continues to be under the bullseye with up to
an additional one inch of rainfall trough tuesday morning. This on
top of an impressive storm total of 3 to 6 inches in the western
Brooks Range.

The southern portions of the central and eastern interior
continue to be under the drying influence of a weak chinook.
Chinook winds are expected to increase this morning and continue
through Tuesday morning along and near the northern foothills of
the eastern Alaska Range. Wind advisories have been hoisted for
wind gusts to 50 mph for zones 226 the eastern Alaska Range and
zone 223 the Deltana and Tanana Flats. Expect winds to increase
rapidly this morning as a 50 kt southerly jet max near 800 mb
interacts with a developing mountain wave which will allow
efficient transport of wind gusts to the surface. The Jet max
arrives along the Alaska Range with a west of south trajectory
which will limit development of a strong mountain wave over the
central Alaska Range and will keep wind gusts under higher Wind
Advisory Criteria of the central Alaska Range however it will
still be gusty with wind gusts near 50 mph in these areas.

On the surface the 992 MB low currently over southwest Alaska will
continue to weaken and elongate to the north and east through the
day as a secondary low forming in the lee of the Brooks Range near
demarcation point deepens to around 997 MB and moves northeast to
near Banks Island tonight. Expect widespread showers to continue
today in the western interior as well as the western and central
Brooks Range while the southern portions of the central and
eastern interior remain dryer with moderate chinook flow. Low
ceilings rain and fog will continue on the North Slope.

Aloft at 500 hpa the long wave trough over the bering sea and
western Alaska will continue through the week. A strong shortwave
with a surface signature drops into the long wave trough out of
eastern Siberia Thursday and moves eastward over the Bering Strait
Friday. There is considerable model spread on track and strength
of this system at this time in general another Bering Sea low
should be impacting the Bering Strait and west coast of Alaska
with another round of gale force winds, high surf and waves as
well as rain by the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
A 995 mb low moving east out of the gulf a Anadyr will move over
the Bering Strait Thursday night and Friday and will bring
another round of moderate south and southwest winds along the
south and southwest facings shores of the seward peninsula and
into Norton Sound. Continue to monitor for changes in forecasted
storm track and strength and attending forecasted storm surge
levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind Advisories have been issued for the eastern Alaska Range and
adjacent northern foothills for wind gusts to 50 mph. Min RH
values are not expected to dip below 40 percent in these areas and
wetting rains continue for most of the rest of the
interior...limited fire weather concerns attm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Advisory continues for the Kobuk and Noatak Valleys...the
northwestern Brooks Range and the western interior arctic slope.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC AUG 16