Small Craft Advisory 118, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Early fall storm continues over western Alaska. The 00z model
suite initialized well against the 00z analysis and verified well
against the 06z analysis. Model spread is minimal in both the
short range as well as the mid range however significant model
spread exists beyond Friday.

Aloft at 500 HPA a 507 DM low near the pole continues to move
counter clockwise around the pole as a secondary upper level low
near 75 N and the dateline digs south and east and will be located
300 nm north of Barrow Sunday evening and 350 nm northeast of
Barrow Monday morning. Another short wave extending south of this
upper level low will dig south and east to be located near the
northwest coast monday morning and will serve to deepen the long
wave trough over the bering strait and western Alaska. Deep layer
moisture continue to move north and east along the west coast as
well as the western and central interior. As the trough along the
west coast deepens southwest winds ahead of the trough will become
southerly and will limit additional rainfall east of Fairbanks in
the southern interior.

On the surface an elongated 995 MB low stretching from near Nome
to near Nunivak Island will deepen to around 992 MB and drift
slowly east to near Unalakleet this evening and near Holy Cross
Monday morning. A secondary low develops over the central Brooks
Range Tonight and continues to deepen to 997 MB as it exits to the
northeast near demarcation point Monday morning. The western
interior remains under the heavy rain bullseye with an additional
1 to 2 inches of rain expected to fall through Monday morning on
top of the 1 to 1.5 inches that has already fallen. The western
Brooks Range continues to rack up the rainfall totals with many
areas receiving over 3 inches of rain and Red Dog Mine reporting
a storm total rainfall of nearly 5 inches of rain. Ongoing flood
advisory for the Kobuk and Noatak Valleys for the Northwestern
Brooks Range and the Western Interior Arctic Slope look on track.

Tide levels continue to drop in Norton Sound as winds have now
become off shore however as north winds increase along the Seward
Peninsula and Bering Strait High Surf conditions are expected to
develop this evening along the north shore of the Seward Peninsula
to the west of Shishmaref as well as the the north facing
shoreline near Wales...on Little Diomede Island as well as the
north shore of St Lawrence Island.

Southerly chinook winds are expected to increase along the
northern foothills of the central and eastern Alaska Range with
gusts to near 45 mph expected to develop this afternoon and evening.
Stronger winds aloft move over the Central Alaska Range Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning are expected to reach the surface
with a moderate mountain wave setting up over the Alaska Range.
Will need to monitor closely as cross section guidance continues
to indicate the potential for advisory level wind gusts Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning along and near the foothills of
the central and eastern Alaska Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
High Surf Advisories in effect for the north shore of the Seward
Peninsula to the west of Shishmaref trough Midnight Monday as
well as the north facing shoreline near Wales...on Little Diomede
Island as well as the north shore of St Lawrence Island from 6 PM
this evening to Midnight Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty winds to develop this afternoon along the the northern
foothills of the central and eastern Alaska Range with wind gusts
near 45 mph however min RH values are expected to remain above 40
percent. Wind gusts over 50 mph are possible along the northern
foothills Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning with min RH
values dropping to near 40 percent late Monday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing Flood Advisory on track for the Kobuk and Noatak Valleys
as well as the northwestern Brooks Range and the western interior
arctic slope with storm total rainfall in the 2 to locally 4
inches range. An additional 1 to 2 inches possible in these areas
before the rain diminishes. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is
progged for the western interior with generally less than an
additional inch on tap for the central interior west of Bettles to
Tanana line.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

CCC AUG 16