Small Craft Advisory 113, NWS Fairbanks, AK

727 
FZAK51 PAFG 172315
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
315 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-181300-
315 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1002 MB LOW 800 NM WEST OF POINT HOPE WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTH 
OF POINT HOPE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A 1000 MB LOW. THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN TO 990 MB WITH THE CENTER 300 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
BY NOON THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ225-181300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
315 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-181300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
315 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.THU...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-181300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
315 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.THU...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-181300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
315 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. FOG.
.THU...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-181300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
315 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AUG 16

764 
FZAK51 PAFG 181135
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
335 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-190030-
335 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 999 MB LOW 100 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL DEEPEN TO A 980 MB
LOW CENTER 100 NM NORTH OF PRINCE PATRICK ISLAND BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LOW CENTER MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SIBERIAN INTERIOR
WILL BECOME AN ELONGATED 996 MB LOW EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
ANADYR TO JUST NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ225-190030-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
335 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND
FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-190030-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
335 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND
FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-190030-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
335 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND
FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-190030-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
335 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-190030-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
335 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

RF/LTH AUG 16

038 
FZAK51 PAFG 182210
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
210 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-191315-
210 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KAKTOVIK TO SHISHMAREF TO SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SAT MORNING. A 995 MB LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPE FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ225-191315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
210 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-191315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
210 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-191315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
210 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-191315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
210 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-191315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
210 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

JK AUG 16

140 
FZAK51 PAFG 191153
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
353 AM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-200015-
353 AM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 995 MB LOW OVER THE SIBERIAN INTERIOR 600 NM WEST OF POINT
HOPE WILL BECOME AN ELONGATED 998 MB LOW EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ANADYR TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY NOON SATURDAY THE LOW WILL SPLIT
INTO A 998 MB CENTER 100 NM NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER
DELTA AND A BROAD 1000 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT.


$$

PKZ225-200015-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
353 AM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-200015-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
353 AM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-200015-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
353 AM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-200015-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
353 AM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-200015-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
353 AM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

RF/EWP AUG 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
346 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

UPDATED HYDROLOGY SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Out through 84 hrs/12Z Saturday, current runs of the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/Canadian models are in generally good agreement
on the forecast of the major surface and upper air features
affecting northern Alaska.

UPPER AIR...
A deep upper low centered near 83N/149E will move to near 80N/180W
by noon Thursday and to near 80N/140W by Friday afternoon. A
moderately strong westerly flow aloft will continue over the
Arctic coast and the Arctic coastal and offshore waters. Several
low amplitude short wave troughs will move eastward across the
Arctic coast and the Arctic coastal and offshore waters through
Friday. A stronger short wave which is expected to transit
eastward across Siberia is currently progged to move eastward to
the Chukchi Sea and northern Bering Sea by Saturday morning.

Over the interior, a light wind flow will continue through
Friday night, then gradually become southwesterly with a
slight increase in wind speeds by Saturday night as the stronger
short wave trough moves eastward to the Chukchi Sea and Bering
Sea. 850 mb temperatures will remain near or a little above
normal through Friday.

SURFACE...
A 981 mb low centered near 84N/149E will weaken to a 985 mb
low near 81N/175W by Thursday afternoon and to a 990 mb
center near 80N/140W by Saturday afternoon.

A 1002 mb low is currently located in the Russian interior 800 nm
west of Point Hope. This low will move eastward to 200 nm north of
Point Hope by midnight Wednesday night while deepening to 1000 mb.
By noon Thursday the low will deepen to a 990 mb center about 300
nm north of Demarcation Point. By midnight Thursday night the low
will deepen to around 980 mb near Prince Patrick island in the
Canadian archipelago. As this low moves eastward,

Associated with the stronger incoming short wave trough aloft,
another low will move eastward across the Siberian interior
and become an elongated 996 mb low over the Chukotsk Peninsula
by Friday afternoon. By Saturday afternoon, the elongated
low will have a central pressure of 992-1000 mb, stretching
from the Seward Peninsula to about 200 nm north of Demarcation
Point, mainly southwest winds 25-35 mph will develop over the
western Arctic coast and coastal waters Wednesday morning, over
the Chukchi Sea coast Wednesday afternoon, then spread eastward
across the remainder of the Arctic coastal and offshore waters and
to the central Beaufort Sea coast by Thursday morning. The
strongest winds will be offshore north of the Arctic coast. The
BerinG Strait coast may see southwest wind to around 25 mph this
afternoon through Thursday evening. Winds will decrease over the
western Arctic coast by Thursday morning, across the northern
Arctic coast by Thursday afternoon, and over the central and
eastern Arctic coast by Thursday evening. There will be elevated
surf along the Chukchi Sea coast northwest of Cape Krusenstern
late Wednesday night through early Thursday evening, with seas to
around 7 feet. Rain will develop over northern and western Arctic
coast Thursday, spreading to the central Beaufort Sea coast and
the western and central interior Arctic Slope and Brooks Range
Thursday night, and to the eastern Beaufort Sea coast and the
remainder of the inland Arctic Slope and Brooks Range Friday. Rain
will develop over the lower Noatak valley Thursday night,
spreading upper Kobuk and Noatak valleys Friday and continuing
through Saturday. The next incoming low center will produce
widespread rain over the west coast, western interior, and the
central and western parts of the Arctic coast and Brooks Range.
With these two systems there is potential for heavy rainfall
amounts over the central and western interior Arctic slope, the
western Brooks Range and the Noatak and upper Kobuk valleys, and
eventually over much of the western interior.

As the next low pressure center moves eastward out of Siberia,
another period of strong south to southwest winds will begin over
the Chukchi See and the northern Bering Sea by Friday afternoon
and spreading into Norton Sound by Friday night. Maximum wind
speeds could reach gale force. This second round of strong winds
will bring another period of elevated surf to the Chukchi Sea
coast northwest of Cape Krusenstern, and to south or southwest
facing shoreline along the Bering Strait Coast and St Lawrence
Island beginning Friday afternoon or Friday evening. There will
be potential for high surf along the northern shore of Norton
Sound Friday night and Saturday, along with storm surge from 2 to
as much as 5 feet in Norton Sound, with the highest storm surge
values being in Norton Bay. Seas offshore in Norton Sound could be
as high as 8 to 9 feet.

Over the interior, a weak pressure pattern will persist through
Friday afternoon, with slightly higher pressure south of the
Alaska Range.

COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
Potential for elevated surf along the Chukchi Sea Coast northwest
of Cape Krusenstern, and along south or southwest facing
shorelines of the Bering Strait Coast and St Lawrence Island
beginning Friday afternoon or Friday evening, with south to
southwest winds as strong as gale force. Potential for high surf
along the northern shoreline of Norton Sound, with storm surge of
2 to 5 feet in Norton Sound Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relative humidity values in the interior are expected
to be mainly 35-45 percent today, and above 40 percent Thursday
and Friday. Winds are expected to be 10 mph or less in the
interior through Friday. No red flag conditions are expected.
No thunderstorms are expected today through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water and bankfull conditions will continue on the Porcupine
River for the next few days but no flooding is expected. Increased
debris and high water will also be moving into the Yukon River
downstream of Fort Yukon. On other rivers, water levels are
currently remaining steady or slowly falling. At Fairbanks, the
stage of the Chena River has fallen to 5.0 feet as of 1 am this
morning.

There is potential for heavy rainfall over the central and western
interior Arctic slope, western Brooks Range, and the Kobuk and
Noatak valleys.

Over the central and western interior Arctic Slope and the lower
Noatak valley, rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected
Thursday night and Friday.

For the 24 hour period Friday night through Saturday,
rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 0.75 inch are expected over the
central and western interior Arctic slope and Brooks Range, and
amounts of 1 to more than 1.5 inches are expected over the Noatak
and upper Kobuk valleys.

For the 24 hour period Saturday night through Sunday, widespread
rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are expected over the
west coast south and east of the Seward Peninsula, the central
and western interior, middle Tanana Valley and most of the
interior Arctic slope and Brooks Range, with local amounts
of over 0.5 inch.

For the 24 hr period Sunday night through Monday, rainfall
amounts of 0.25 to about 1 inch are expected over the west
coast south and east of Norton Sound, most of the western and
central interior, and the central and eastern Arctic slope and
Brooks Range.

Additional rainfall is expected Monday night into Tuesday over
much of the central and western interior, and the central and
eastern interior Arctic Slope and Brooks Range. These rainfall
amounts are based on the GFS and NAM models through 84 hours
and from the GFS model beyond 84 hours.

From the GFS model...total accumulated rainfall amounts through
next Tuesday exceed 3 inches over much of the western interior,
the central and western interior, the upper Kobuk and Noatak
valleys, and most of the interior Arctic Slope and Brooks Range.
The heaviest projected total amounts are in the central and
western Brooks Range and the upper Kobuk and Noatak valleys
where total amounts of 4 to 6 inches are progged.

This sustained period of significant rainfall will likely produce
significant rises on many rivers and streams. Flooding will be
possible on rivers and streams draining out of mountainous
terrain. The greatest risk of flooding will be on rivers
draining out of the Brooks Range and in the upper Kobuk and
Noatak valleys. Future model runs will need to be monitored
for this potential for heavy rainfall and flooding.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

Aug 16