Alert archive / Alaska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK
NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 30, 2016, 5:53 PM AKDT. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 30, 2016, 5:53 PM AKDT (01:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 30, 2016, 6:30 PM AKDT
- In force
- 37 min
- Issued by
- NWS Fairbanks, AK
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
The radar
The Fairbanks Faa radar (PAPD), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Fairbanks, (PFAI), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -70 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1578 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 18 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 42 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
438 WUAK59 PAFG 010154 SVRAFG AKZ221>223-010230- /O.NEW.PAFG.SV.W.0003.160701T0154Z-160701T0230Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 553 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL CENTRAL INTERIOR IN ALASKA... NORTHWESTERN DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS IN ALASKA... SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY IN ALASKA... * UNTIL 630 PM AKDT * AT 553 PM AKDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER NENANA...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NENANA AND ANDERSON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL... DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. && LAT...LON 6467 14906 6453 14878 6428 14926 6448 14968 TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 047DEG 18KT 6456 14905 $$
1 follow-up statement
632
WWAK59 PAFG 010227
SVSAFG
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
627 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016
AKZ221>223-010237-
/O.EXP.PAFG.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160701T0230Z/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
627 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CENTRAL
INTERIOR...NORTHWESTERN DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM AKDT...
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
LAT...LON 6467 14906 6453 14878 6428 14926 6448 14968
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 047DEG 18KT 6456 14905
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 30, 1:53 PM AKDT, 4 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 1:53 PM AKDT, 4 hours before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 153 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Aloft... A ridge of high pressure that stretches from NW Canada west across Northern Alaska will slowly weaken through the weekend but persist into next week. A low in the Gulf of Alaska will will drift slowly east on the weekend. A series of short wave troughs spinning NW from this low will move west across the Alaska Range and Interior Alaska through the weekend. Bands of showers and thunderstorms associated with these troughs will move west across the southern Interior and Alaska Range through the weekend. The highest moisture levels and strongest instability will be across the Alaska Range and southern Interior and those areas will see significant rain through the weekend. The heaviest rain will be in SE interior and Alaska Range SE of Eagle to Big Delta to Minchumina. Temperatures will remain near to just above normal through the weekend. A weak short wave trough from Mcgrath to Galena will move to Bethel to Anvik late tonight. Scattered Thunderstorms with frequent lighting and small hail are occuring along this trough and will continue through tonight. A second short wave trough from Beaver Creek to Eagle will move to Denali to Coldfoot by 4am Fri and to McGrath to Huslia by 4pm Fri. There are widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms that will spread west with the trough through Fri. Showers will be isolated to scattered over the northern Interior. A third and stronger short wave trough over the southern Yukon Territory will move to Glennallen to Northway by 4am Fri...to Denali to Old Crow by 4pm Fri...to McGrath to Old Crow by 4am Sat and to Telida to Fort Yukon by 4pm Sat. There will be heavy showers with this trough across the southern Interior and Alaska Range with isolated to scattered showers to the north. A fourth short wave will rotate NE to the SE Interior and SE Alaska Range on Sat and then persist through Sun. This will cause more widespread showers over the SE Interior and SE Alaska Range Sat into Sun. Surface... An Arctic front from Barter Island to Barrow will move to Barter Island to Deadhorse north by 4pm Fri and then moving north of the coast Sat. A 1025 mb high north of the eastern Arctic Coast will move east over Banks Island Fri. Will see stratus and fog along the Arctic front move north of the coast as the front moves north. A 1020 mb high over the northern Bering Sea will persist through Sat. This will cause winds to be NW along the West Coast of Alaska and cause areas of stratus and fog over the southern Chukchi Sea and the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island through Sat. && .DISCUSSION... Models similar solutions at 500 mb through the weekend. Slight differences in speed and location of short wave trough leads to significant differences in location and amounts of precipitation through the weekend. We went along with the GFS but smoothed out the precipitation amounts with the NAM and EMCF. All models show the heaviest rainfall tonight and Fri in the Alaska Range and that makes the most sense at this point. There may be heavier rain north of the Alaska Range but due to the convective nature it cannot be pinpointed until convection occurs. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Significant number of lighting strikes occuring today across the southern Interior. In the southern Interior RH will remain above 30% with significant rain. In the northern Interior Rh will drop below 30% on the weekend with temperatures reaching near 80. && .HYDROLOGY... 1 to 2 inches of rain likely through Fri southeast of Eagle to Minchumina with the heaviest amounts in the Alaska Range with the heaviest rain tonight and Fri. At this time it looks like most of that area will get 1 to 2 inches of rain through Fri...but in the Alaska Range a few locations could get as much as 3 inches. The locations of the higher amounts is very uncertain due to the convective nature of these events and rainfall amounts will need to be watched closely. At this time no flooding is expected...but small streams in the Alaska Range are expected to rise rapidly on Fri with mudslides possible along steep slopes. Larger rivers across the southeast Interior and Alaska Range will be rising through the weekend as well. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245. && JB JUN 16
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 30, 2:14 PM AKDT, 3 hours 39 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 214 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016 AKZ223>226-020030- DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS- UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY-DENALI- EASTERN ALASKA RANGE- INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY... HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE...TOK... TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN...NORTHWAY...ALCAN...CHICKEN... BOUNDARY...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK... KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME... TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE 214 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016 ...HEAVY RAINS IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY...THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA...AND THE ALASKA RANGE INCLUDING DENALI PARK. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA RANGE. THESE RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO RISE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY...THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA...AND THE ALASKA RANGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE SMALL STREAMS COULD RISE RAPIDLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE VENTURING INTO THE ABOVE AREAS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPIDLY RISING STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES ALONG STEEP SLOPES. FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS.
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.