Gale Warning 98, NWS Fairbanks, AK

654 
FZAK52 PAFG 272210
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-281400-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND WESTERN
ARCTIC TODAY WILL SPREAD E BY WED AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY WED
MORNING WITH STRONG WESTERLIES DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AND
PERSISTING INTO THU. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH N OVER THE
AREA BY LATE THU.

$$

PKZ200-281400-
NORTON SOUND-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-281400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-281400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-281400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

LTH/RM SEP 16

041 
FZAK52 PAFG 281242
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
442 AM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-290200-
442 AM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 993 MB LOW 200 NM NW OF
WRANGEL ISLAND AND A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
AS IT ROTATES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REORIENT AS A 971 MB LOW OVER THE SEA OF OHKOTSK MOVES TO
CENTRAL SIBERIA FRI.

$$

PKZ200-290200-
NORTON SOUND-
442 AM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-290200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
442 AM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-290200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
442 AM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-290200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
442 AM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SDB SEP 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...The models are in good agreement in the short term
with decent run to run consistency. the biggest forecast challenge
in the short term will be along the west coast where the latest storm
surge guidance continues to show the potential for elevated water
tomorrow night into wednesday (more on this below).

Aloft...At 500 hpa a 516 dam low sits just north of Barrow while
543 dam low currently sits over the Alaska Peninsula. Both of
these features will be pushed off to the east by a quickly moving
upper level ridge. The ridge axis will be along a line from Barrow
to Bristol Bay by late Tuesday afternoon and will be along a line
from Barter island to Anchorage by Wednesday morning. The ridge
will be pushed eastward by a trough associated with a 509 dam low
over the Chukotsk Peninsula.

Surface...A 1005 mb low north of Deadhorse will continue to push
to the east. a weak cold front stretches southwest from the low
and currently lies along a line from Deadhorse to Unalakleet. This
front will push eastward tonight. High pressure will build over
the north slope and west coast on Tuesday.  A strong weather
system will move into the central Bering Sea by Tuesday evening
and the warm front will surge up the west coast early very
Wednesday morning. By noon on Wednesday a rapidly moving cold
front will be over the Bering Strait and pushing east into the
west coast and riding north over the ridging that will persist
over the southern third of the state.

West coast and Western Interior...Areas from Galena east will
seen some rain showers and patchy fog this evening as the
aforementioned cold front moves off to the west. Tuesday will be
relatively quiet across the west coast before the next big storm
system begins to move in Tuesday night. Model runs over the past
few days have been fairly consistent in brining in a decent storm
into the west coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will
bring about a 12 hour period of strong westerly winds into Norton
Sound beginning early Wednesday. This will result in increased
water levels in Norton Sound on Wednesday. With this package I
have issued a Coastal Flood Warning for Zone 212 due to the
potential for minor coastal flooding. The GFS based storm surge
guidance is showing the highest storm surge values in Norton Bay
on Wednesday, while storm surge values in excess of 4 feet are
expected in Unalakleet. Elsewhere along the west coast there is
the potential for some elevated surf and minor coastal erosion with
this system, thus I have issued high surf advisories for zones
207, 209, 211 and 214. The high surf conditions will develop from
north to south beginning Tuesday evening. This system will also
bring winds in excess of 40 mph to the coastal areas as well as
widespread rainfall on Wednesday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some snow is expected along the
cold front as it moves eastward. The font is relatively fast
moving, so I don't expect a lot of snow accumulation. At most two
inches is possible in the Brooks Range. Cloudy conditions are
expected behind the front overnight with stratus moving in.
Relatively quiet conditions are expected on Tuesday. A weather
system will move from west to east across the north slope on
Wednesday bringing another round of snowfall. Models are in
relatively good agreement that a high amplitude upper level ridge
will build over the north slope over the weekend resulting in
above normal temperatures.

Central and Eastern Interior...The patchy dense fog that was over
a large portion of the central Interior this morning finally
lifted early this afternoon. Fog may redevelop this evening after
sunset in some areas; however, this will be kept somewhat at bay
by the increased cloud cover associated with the eastward moving
cold front. Showers are expected along the front as it moves
east. The precipitation type will be rain this evening. The
precipitation type will transition to or mix with snow later on
tonight. As the front moves eastward tonight models suggest that
it fizzles out a bit, thus pops along the front gradually decrease
overnight. We are not expecting any significant snow accumulation
along the front. Tuesday through Wednesday morning look to be
relatively quiet across the interior. The next round of
preciptiation will be Wednesday evening into Thursday as a short
wave moves across the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...see west coast section
above, in addition to the further in the extended the GFS is
showing the potential for southeasterly winds in excess of 40 kts
across norton sound for a 12 to 18 hour period on Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...no concerns at this time.

Marine...Winds coming up in advance of the weather system
will bring small craft conditions to some western areas tomorrow
increasing to Gales tomorrow night.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ212.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ214.

Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ221.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

SEP 16