Gale Warning 93, NWS Fairbanks, AK

928 
FZAK51 PAFG 121212
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
412 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-130015-
412 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD
TO THE ARCTIC COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ225-130015-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
412 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-130015-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
412 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-130015-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
412 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.  
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-130015-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
412 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-130015-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
412 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

RF/EP SEP 16

199 
FZAK51 PAFG 122145
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-131400-
145 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT S TO BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY WED MORNING. A LOW OVER
THE NORTH POLE WED MORNING WILL MOVE S TO BE 300 NM N OF BARROW
BY FRI MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA.

$$

PKZ225-131400-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
145 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-131400-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
145 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-131400-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
145 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-131400-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
145 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-131400-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
145 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SDB SEP 16

503 
FZAK51 PAFG 131120
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
320 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-140230-
320 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF SIBERIA WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER SIBERIA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE HIGH TO ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A 988 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTH
POLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE 300 NM NORTH OF BARROW. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CHUCKCHI SEA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ225-140230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
320 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-140230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
320 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-140230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
320 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-140230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
320 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-140230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
320 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SEP 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 PM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Excellent run to run continuity with very little change
in the solutions the last couple runs. Solutions through the
midrange and extended periods continue to be similar enough that a
blend will smooth out the bumps. Will lean toward the NAM
precipitation solution as it handle the rain shadowing better than
the other models with a nudge to the SREF Probabilities.

Aloft...at 500 hpa...A 510 dam closed low over the northeast
arctic will move east tonight to Banks Island and continue into
the Canadian archipelago Monday. A shortwave will swinging south
around the low is moving over the arctic coast and will merge
with a 537 dam low that develops over the Bering Strait. The low
then moves northeast across the interior to the Yukon Territory by
Tuesday evening at 542 dam. A west to east lying trough will
persist over the central arctic through Tuesday, then move south
over the northwest and central arctic coast Wednesday. A ridge
over the north Pacific is pushing 543 dam heights north over the
arctic coast today. The ridge will slide east tonight and heights
will slowly fall over the area through Tuesday. A ridge over the
western Aleutians will move east to the southwest mainland by
Tuesday evening as the low moves across the interior. At 850
hpa...Zero isotherm lies along the crest of the Brooks Range and
north of St Lawrence Island today and will remain stationary into
late Monday before slowly moving south and east to lie from Old
Crow Yukon to Livengood to Holy Cross to St Lawrence Island late
Tuesday.

Surface...A 994 low just south of Nunivak Island will move
northeast to Norton Sound tonight at 986 mb, and to Huslia at 993
mb by Tuesday morning. A 995 mb low will develop over the upper
Yukon Flats early Tuesday and move east into the Yukon Territory.
Ridging will build southeast across the arctic and south over the
Gulf of Anadyr and eastern Bering Sea from a 1030 mb center near
New Siberian Island. Troughing and the associated stationary
weather front will remain across the interior as the low moves
east, and will be enhanced late Wednesday as a 979 mb low over the
Western Aleutians Monday night moves to the Central aleutians
Wednesday morning at 978 mb, and to the western Alaska Peninsula
by Thursday evening at 986 mb. A broad are of low pressure high in
the arctic Wednesday will move south to the central arctic with a
988 mb center 300 nm north of Barrow by Friday morning.
Precipitation will spread over the forecast area today from the
southwest with the exception of the areas in the rain shadow of
the Alaska Range. Snow developing at higher elevations of the
Alaska and Brooks Ranges today and tonight.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...SPORT NPP VIIRS 24 hour
Microphysics product at 11/1751Z continues to indicate a band of
stratus a couple hundred miles wide north of the Brooks range.
GOES probability product at 11/19150Z again indicating it is
mostly MVFR sky cover. There are some IFR conditions indicated
around the Chukchi Sea and observations indicate this is mostly
fog. Not much change expected with plenty of cloud cover in the
coastal areas. In the Brooks Range conditions will deteriorate
tonight as the low moves to Norton Sound and spreads precipitation
over the area. Tough call on snow amounts with this being the
transition period and the ground is not frozen, and there will be
some warm air brought north with the system. Expect some heavier
precipitation with the upslope component and a good south feed
into the area, so will maintain the Winter Weather Watch for now
and let the next shift an opportunity to evaluate the latest model
output. Current output indicates anywhere from 4 to 7 inches of
snow is possible above 1500 feet. Some stronger east winds over
most of the area as the low moves north and weak ridging builds
east over the offshore waters.

West Coast and Western Interior...Rain continuing to spread north
overnight, then tapering off from the southwest starting midday
Monday. Rainfall amounts from 0.25 to 0.75 inch will be possible
through Tuesday morning. A few flurries will be possible in the
Kotzebue Sound region Tuesday as cold air starts working its way
southeast. Stronger north to northeast winds over the Chukchi
Sea, Bering Strait, St Lawrence Island, and the coastal areas this
week with the strongest winds near the Bering Strait gusting to
around 40 mph. Temperatures will slowly cool through the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...Rain moving into the area this
evening and the temperatures will continue to slowly cool. Rain
will transition to more showery conditions by late Monday as the
system progresses east. Wednesday will be mostly dry around the
interior as we get a break between weather systems. Patchy fog,
especially along and near the waterways will occur in the
mornings. Strong gusty south winds around 70 mph near the Alaska
Range passes will continue into Monday so have issued High Wind
Warnings for those areas. Gusty winds around Delta Junction to
around 50 mph tonight so will issue a Wind Advisory for Zone 223.
Winds for the remainder of the area will generally be southwest at
5 to 15 mph. Temperatures the remainder of the week will see highs
in the 40 to 50 range and lows in the 30s.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.Hydrology...River continue to trend down, but expect them to
start slowly rising as the rainfall Sunday and Monday makes its
way into the mainstem streams and rivers starting Tuesday. No
significant jumps in the river levels are expected with this
event.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

high wind warning for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Wind Advisory for AKZ223.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ205-AKZ206.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB SEP 16