Gale Warning 78, NWS Fairbanks, AK

912 
FZAK52 PAFG 151156
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 AM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-160300-
356 AM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH INTO BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY THEN
INTO NORTON SOUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND TO NORTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND ON FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ200-160300-
NORTON SOUND-
356 AM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-160300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
356 AM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-160300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
356 AM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-160300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
356 AM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

CCC/LTH JUN 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
125 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Model runs from the Jun 14/12Z forecast cycle are in good
agreement aloft and at the surface over northern Alaska out
through Friday. From Friday to Monday, the spread between model
solutions increases, but all models indicate a trend to cooler and
wetter conditions after a period of warm weather over most of
northern Alaska Thursday and Friday.

Upper air...
A short wave trough aloft now moving eastward across the central
interior will dampen out some by late tonight as it reaches the
Alcan border, then swing northeastward into the western Canadian
archipelago as it rotates around an upper low center over the
high Arctic region north of 80N. An upper level ridge over the
eastern Bering Sea and eastern Siberia will build eastward across
northern Alaska through Friday. The ridge axis Friday afternoon
will extend from northeastern Siberia to Bettles to Yakutat
and southward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The building
ridge will bring much warmer 850 mb temperatures to northern
Alaska Wednesday through Friday. Friday will be the warmest day
over most areas with 850 mb temperatures from +9 to +14 degrees
Celsius over the Arctic slope, the interior, and the west coast
from the Seward Peninsula northward. A period of cooler and wetter
conditions will begin Saturday as several short wave troughs move
northeastward and push the warm ridge into Canada.

Surface...
A 1023 mb high centered over the eastern Beaufort Sea will
weaken to a 1018 mb high about 100 miles west of Banks Island
by Wednesday afternoon. A 1022 mb high centered 350 miles west
of Wrangel Island will build to a 1026 mb high over the Chukchi
Sea by Wednesday afternoon, then weaken to a 1023 mb high
centered over the eastern Beaufort Sea by Thursday evening.
A 1026 mb high pressure ridge extending from south of St lawrence
island to the Alaska Peninsula will gradually weaken through
Wednesday evening while weak high pressure ridging persists over
the interior.

Arctic slope...
Low stratus cloud cover will persist along and near the coast. A
period of rain over the western areas this evening. Rain will
move to the eastern Arctic slope and eastern Brooks Range Tuesday
and taper off Tuesday night. Precipitation may be snow at higher
elevations in the Brooks Range. Substantially warmer temperatures
are expected over the interior Arctic slope and the mountains
Thursday and Friday as the high pressure aloft builds in.

Central and eastern interior...
Scattered low top rain showers over parts of the central and
eastern interior will taper off this evening as the upper level
short wave trough moves off to the east. Isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms are expected over the southeast interior
Thursday as warming temperatures at lower levels result in
decreasing stability. Areal coverage of isolated thunderstorms
is expected to increase Friday afternoon and evening as southerly
flow over areas to the south and west of the ridge axis allows
more moisture to infiltrate northward into the interior. The best
potential for isolated thunderstorms Friday will be over the
southeast interior westward across the middle Yukon valley and
into the eastern interior Seward Peninsula. Much warmer
temperatures are expected Wednesday through Friday as the upper
ridge builds eastward into the interior. High temperatures as warm
as the low 80s will be experienced in some interior areas
Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s lingering
near the Alcan border Saturday. Cooler and wetter conditions
expected over most areas Saturday and over all areas Sunday
into early next week as several short wave troughs move
northeastward across the area.

West coast and western interior...
Warm temperatures continuing over inland areas through Thursday,
and over the west coast from the Seward Peninsula northward and
the interior from the middle Yukon valley northward Friday under
the upper ridge. Temperatures in coastal locations will be heavily
influenced by onshore/offshore wind flow, with sea breezes
cooling temperatures substantially in some areas. Cooler and
wetter conditions will move into the southern areas Friday as a
short wave trough punches into the upper ridge. Cooler and wetter
conditions will spread northward across the rest of the area
Friday night and Saturday as the short wave trough swings northward.
Near the Bering Strait...South winds to 45 mph with gusts to 55
mph diminishing to 25-30 mph later this evening.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A period of much warmer temperatures over most of the interior
Wednesday through Friday as the strong upper ridge builds into
the interior. Some drying expected Wednesday, with much lower
afternoon humidities, 20-30 percent, likely in the central and
eastern interior Thursday and Friday. There will be potential for
isolated thunderstorms in parts of the interior Thursday and
Friday. Over interior areas of the west coast and western
interior, minimum humidities mainly 28-35 percent Wednesday
and Thursday, with humidities increasing in the southern areas
Friday as the northward moving short wave trough brings in
more humid air and rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No problem areas. Recent rains have produced rises on the Chena,
Salcha, Chatanika and the Goodpaster rivers, but river levels
remained well below flood stage. Stages have crested on the Salcha
river, Goodpaster and the upper reaches of the Chena river, while
stages on the lower reaches of the Chena river are still rising.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Gale Warning for PKZ220.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.

&&

RF JUN 16