Gale Warning 70, NWS Fairbanks, AK

822 
FZAK52 PAFG 271221
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
421 AM AKDT WED APR 27 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-280030-
421 AM AKDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 974 MB LOW 110 NM S OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 175 SW OF NIKOLSKI BY
LATE WED AT 978 MB...AND 75 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY AT 991 MB BY THU
EVENING. INVERTED TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST...BERING
STRAIT...AND CHUKCHI SEA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA WILL PUSH SE AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ200-280030-
NORTON SOUND-
421 AM AKDT WED APR 27 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-280030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
421 AM AKDT WED APR 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AND BLOWING
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AND BLOWING
SNOW.
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-280030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
421 AM AKDT WED APR 27 2016

.TODAY...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-280030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
421 AM AKDT WED APR 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RF/NTS APR 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1257 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND MAINTAINS
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH 144 HOURS. JUST NOT SEEING A LOT OF
CHANGES AT THE SURFACE AS MODELS MAINTAIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE STATE WITH LEESIDE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL LOW ENHANCES THE LEESIDE TROUGH
DURING THE DAY AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. WILL USE AN EQUAL BLEND FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS...BUT MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THAT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ALREADY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE WAY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE...SO WILL USE MAINLY THE AKNAMDNG5
WITH SOME MINOR POST EDITING TO ADD A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE. NOT
MUCH SHOWING UP FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERY ACTIVITY THOUGH.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING OVER THE BROOKS RANGE IS SLOWLY
SLIDING NORTH AND WILL BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL LOW REMAINS
OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A 521 DAM LOW
400 NM SOUTH OF HOMER AND A 518 DAM LOW OVER COLD BAY WILL WEAKEN
AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE 508 DAM LOW THAT WILL BE 200 NM SOUTH OF
ATKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA EAST OVER KODIAK ISLAND THEN SOUTHEAST.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST TO BE 50 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE TROUGH MOVING NORTH TO LIE FROM THE
PRIBILOFS TO ANCHORAGE TO WATSON LAKE YUKON...THEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 100 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WITH THE
TROUGH LYING FROM CAPE NEWENHAM TO FAIRBANKS TO FORT MCPHERSON
YUKON BY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE
NORTHWEST PUSHING THE RIDGING JUST OFFSHORE. AT 850 HPA...SLIGHT
COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...THEN THEY WARM BACK UP TO AROUND
THE ZERO MARK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE...SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS HOLDS
THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AND
LEESIDE...THERMAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...AS WELL AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST. DECAYING FRONTS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT NOT
SEEING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN WE COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...JUST NOT SEEING ANYTHING TO CHANGE
FROM CONTINUITY. STRATUS ON THE 26/1601Z SPORT NPP VIIRS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH IN THE SAME
PLACE IT WAS ON MONDAY AND NO REASON FOR IT TO CHANGE IN THE SHORT
TERM. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND OVER
THE FLATS ARE LIGHTER. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE
STRATUS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE BROOKS RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
COAST...THIS DOES PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHT. THE DECAYING FRONT MOVING OVER THE
LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL ALSO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT IN
MANY AREAS. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THE EXCEPTION
OF COURSE IS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST WHICH
WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AS RIDGING OVER CHUKOTKA
TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT UP OVER THE AREA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY AS WELL AS SOUTH OF FORT YUKON AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
FORTYMILE COUNTRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SAME AREAS
WEDNESDAY...THEN MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND AREAS WHERE THE
WATER IS OPENING UP. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST AREAS AT 5 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOONS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH AS THE
THERMAL LOW STRENGTHENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH THE EARLY SEASON
CONVECTIVE NUMBERS SO NOT PUTTING A LOT OF WEIGHT IN THEM.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE DECAYING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AND DEWPOINTS RISE
A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GREENUP IN THE TANANA VALLEY WAS
RECORDED BY THE FAIRBANKS OFFICE TODAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR ZONES PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB APR 16