Gale Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

246 
FZAK51 PAFG 061206
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-070315-
306 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 986 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER WRANGEL ISLAND BY WED MORNING...THEN
MOVES NORTH TO THE HIGH ARCTIC BY THU MORNING. 1032 MB HIGH OVER
THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE NORTH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WED AND MOVE N. A 1021 MB HIGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN THU.

$$

PKZ225-070315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
306 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-070315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
306 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-070315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
306 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-070315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
306 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-070315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
306 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.TODAY...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

CF/DA JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1259 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD SHORT TERM CONTINUITY WITH MINOR SPREAD IN THE
FIRST 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND STRENGTH
SHOW UP. GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTES. WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF
THE MODELS AND JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT DATABASE MAKING ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS AND ELONGATED
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA AROUND A 492 DAM LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL
ARCTIC COAST...THEN WEST OVER THE SIBERIAN COAST. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE
WEST COAST AND NUDGING INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WHILE THE RIDGE
AXIS ROTATES TO A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION. ALSO A 526 DAM
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE YUKON...WHILE THE
LOW REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES NORTH TO BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. ALSO A 486 DAM LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE 526 DAM LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST MOVES OVER PORT ALEXANDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND KOTZEBUE SOUND
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THURSDAY AT 490
DAM...THEN BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN INTO A 520 DAM
LOW OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA FRIDAY WHILE A PIECE OF THE
RIDGE BREAKS OFF AND HEIGHTS BUILD TO 545 DAM LATE FRIDAY.

SURFACE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 970ISH MB LOW IN THE
BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A 948 MB LOW MOVES NORTH INTO
THE BERING SEA...THEN NORTHWEST TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR AND THE ARCTIC COAST AROUND A 1028ISH MB HIGH OVER THE
YUKON TERRITORY...EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST COAST AND BE
ENHANCED AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THURSDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS MOST
OF THE STRATUS HAS BEEN PUSHED OFFSHORE BY THE SOUTH FLOW. NOT
MUCH TO SEE ON THE SATELLITE PRODUCTS TODAY. WILL GET SOME BREAKS
IN THE HIGH OVERCAST LATER TONIGHT FROM BARROW EAST AS THE LATEST
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
AREA WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO
THE EAST OF WAINWRIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES AROUND
BARROW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH STRONGER WINDS WEST OF BARROW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MOST ACTIVE AREA WITH THE LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA
SPINNING WAVES NORTH UP THE COAST. FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT UNTIL THEN SNOW AND SOME
SPOTTY RAIN WILL FALL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF
NOATAK AND THE LOWER KOBUK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS WHILE THE NULATO HILLS CAN EXPECT
4 TO 6 INCHES AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE AROUND 2
INCHES.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...REALLY QUIET. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM TANANA
WEST. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT THEY WILL TREND DOWN A BIT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHES NORTH.
AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT WILL OF COURSE SEE COLDER TEMPERATURES. WINDS
IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN...THEN
TREND BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND WILL STAY PRETTY GUSTY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ210.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ209-AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

SDB JAN 16