Gale Warning 24, NWS Fairbanks, AK

741 
FZAK51 PAFG 202313
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-211215-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND DRIFT NORTH AND OFFSHORE INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ225-211215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT...DIMINISHING LATE. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-211215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-211215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-211215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT.
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-211215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
213 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

EWP/BJB JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
221 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS
PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH FRI THEN RETROGRADES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE THEN BUILDS NW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE
WEATHER FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THIS FLOW CAUSING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH FRI WITH A WARM UP TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO THE BERING STRAIT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU. THIS WILL SERVE AS A NORTHERN LIMIT TO CLOUDS
AND ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C IN THE YUKON DELTA TO -19C
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THU.

SURFACE...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA
EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH
OF THE COAST THU. THIS IS CAUSING AREAS OF FLURRIES AND FOG OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE. LIGHT N-NW WINDS FROM BARROW EAST...AND EAST
WINDS WEST OF BARROW.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT ALOFT STRETCHING FROM MCGRATH TO DAWSON WILL
MOVE TO ANVIK TO TANANA TO EAGLE BY 3AM WED...TO THE YUKON DELTA
TO OLD CROW BY 3PM WED...TO NORTON SOUND TO OLD CROW BY 3AM
THU...AND THEN DISSIPATE ALONG A NOME TO OLD CROW LINE BY 3PM
THU. SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY WED AND TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS BY WED
NIGHT. STRONG NE WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE OCCURING NORTH OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE...THE INTERIOR UPLANDS AND FROM POINT HOPE TO GAMBELL. WINDS
WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

A SECOND AND WEAKER WEATHER FRONT OVER SE ALASKA WILL MOVE TO
GLENNALLEN TO DESTRUCTION BAY BY 3AM WED...TO DENALI TO CHICKEN BY
3PM WED...TO MCGRATH TO EAGLE BY 3AM THU...AND TO ANIAK TO EAGLE
BY 3PM THU. THIS WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH THU.

A THIRD WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO EXTREME SE INTERIOR BY
3PM THU...AND THEN TO DENALI TO OLD CROW BY FRI. THIS WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE SE INTERIOR THU AND SPREAD A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THU ON
MOST FIELDS. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS. FAVOR
THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS MORES CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. START TO SEE DIVERGENCES IN SHORT WAVE SPEED AND
STRENGTH STARTING THIS WEEKEND...BUT LONG WAVE PATTERNS REMAIN
SIMILAR INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.
&&

JB JAN 16