Gale Warning 167, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
648 AM AKST Thu Dec 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The major Bering Sea storm has started to impact the west coast of
Alaska as forecast. The initial weather front has spread heavy
snow from the Yukon River Delta north to Kotzebue Sound and inland
into the western Interior. Southeast winds gusting from 40 to 60
mph have resulted in near zero visibility in blowing snow in many
coastal locations. Heavy snow and increasing winds will continue
to push east across the state today and impact the entire forecast
area with winter weather by tonight. Warmer air aloft and at the
surface has caused snow to mix with freezing rain or turn to rain
in the lower Yukon delta and over Saint Lawrence Island. A brief
period of freezing rain may spread as far north as the Seward
Peninsula today but precipitation is will remain all snow to the
north and east. Winds will rapidly shift to the southwest behind
the weather front and strong southwest winds will persist over
most of the forecast area into the weekend.

Models are in relatively good agreement with the track of this
system but it is moving a little faster than forecast. Snowfall
and blizzard conditions are developing a few hours sooner than
initially forecast. We will continue to monitor this trend and the
timing of snow and wind moving into the Interior. Otherwise we
made little to no change to the forecasts overnight.

As the main low center moves northeast across the Chukotsk
Peninsula today it will be quickly followed by a rapidly moving
second low embedded in the southwest flow that will move
northeast through the Bering Strait Friday afternoon and to the
eastern Arctic coast Friday night. A sharp trough with a very
tight gradient will transit across the forecast area bringing a
second round of strong west to southwest winds to much of northern
Alaska Friday and Saturday. Many of the current warnings for heavy
snow and low visibility due to blowing snow were extended and
mention a lull in the snow and winds between the initial front and
this second feature.

Another forecast challenge of the day is the effect of the long
duration and fetch of strong southwest winds over the Bering and
Chukchi Seas over the next several days. Storm surge model
guidance is indicating alarmingly high surge values especially in
Norton Sound and the northern Bering Sea. There is uncertainty how
sea ice will dampen or mitigate the effects of the storm surge.
The effects of ice may vary depending on location and it is likely
surge values will be much lower than forecast in ice covered
areas. The south shore of Saint Lawerence Island is essentially
ice free and will feel the brunt of the surge Friday afternoon andnight
with minor coastal flooding possible. Watches for elevated sea
level and localized ice pushes onshore have been issued for Norton
Sound.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4....Another strong system
will move into the Bering and Chukchi Seas Saturday and Sunday.
This will bring additional strong winds and blizzard conditions to
western Alaska. Storm surge may have a more significant impact on
the coast since the sea will be broken up and weakened in many
areas due to the strong winds the next couple days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ213.

Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ224-AKZ227.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

DEC 16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
944 AM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  WALES                   65.61N 168.08W
12/29/2016  M74 MPH          NOME               AK   PUBLIC

            WEATHER OBSERVATION FROM WALES REPORTS WND
            GUST TO 74MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59MPH.

&&

NWS FAIRBANKS AK
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1002 AM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     BLIZZARD         59 SSE TELLER           64.51N 165.44W
12/29/2016                   NOME               AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORT FROM NWS AT WSO NOME OF SNOW CHANGING
            TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO ALL RAIN.

&&

HFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1137 AM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     BLIZZARD         2 WNW KOTZEBUE          66.90N 162.60W
12/29/2016                   NORTHWEST ARCTIC   AK   PUBLIC

            REPORTS FROM KOTZEBUE OF A ROOF BLOWN OFF OF
            A BLDG AND LARGE SCALE POWER OUTAGE POSSIBLY
            EFFECTING ENTIRE CITY.

&&

HFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1216 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     BLIZZARD         POINT HOPE              68.35N 166.79W
12/29/2016                   NORTH SLOPE        AK   AWOS

            WIND REPORT FROM POINT HOPE AT 1156AST
            SHOWED WIND GUSTS OF 76 MPH.

&&

HFL