Gale Warning 166, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
353 PM AKST Wed Dec 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Models are in reasonable agreement with the upper level features
through Monday with some slight timing differences between the
NAM, GFS, and ECMWF. Currently leaning more heavily on the GFS.

The current 1007 mb low pressure system that brought nearly 2 to
5 inches of snow across Interior Alaska from Fairbanks to Delta
Junction will continue move to the northeast tonight and weaken
towards Arctic Village. With the next big system at 947 mb low
pressure located 300 nm west of Shemya is expected to deepen
rapidly and and move to 400 nm northwest of Shemya as a 938 mb low
by Wednesday afternoon. This system will move to near Anadyr as a
953 mb by Thursday afternoon...and to near Wrangel Island as a
980 mb low by Friday afternoon. Will see strong southeast winds
developing over the northern Bering Sea and southern Chukchi Sea
tonight becoming southwest on Thursday and Friday as it moves
inland to the West Coast. Then there will be another system that
will move quickly behind it on Friday into Saturday bringing
increased coastal flooding potential to Norton Sound to Bering
Strait. Please read more in the Coastal Hazards section.

The West Coast will start to see the impacts of this next system
first as strong winds up to 55 mph will bring blizzard conditions
across the coastal areas along with heavy snow and near zero
visibilities. Particularly along the Yukon Delta and Eastern
Norton Sound areas will see a wintry mix, as initially
precipitation will start as snow and then transition to periods
of freezing rain on Thursday. Although more confidence over the
Yukon Delta area, there are possible chances for freezing rain in
the Upper Kuskokwim Valley as well.

The frontal system will transition across the Western Interior and
into Central and Eastern Alaska with winter storm warnings upgraded
from watches earlier today. The snow amounts across the area with
roughly 6 to 12 inches for majority of Alaska. Models suggesting
the highest snow amounts to extend from Ambler to Hughes to
Bettles and another area of higher snow amounts from Tanana to
northeast of Fairbanks and Chena Hot Springs. Although it's
expected that areas in Eastern Alaska and the Alaska Range will
get snow, there is still some uncertainty in advisory criteria
verses warning criteria (greater than 12 inches of snow in 24
hours). Thus I have left the watches for the Alaska Range and
Eastern Alaksa. Main impacts for the this system will be the
stronger winds and heavy snow creating blowing snow and
visibilities of half a mile or less at times. There is a potential
for stronger winds and heavy snow to cause power outages similar
to previous events such as in 2010 and 2013 across the greater Fairbanks
area. However the 2013 winter snow and wind event included freezing
rain across the Interior which is not anticipated with this
current approaching system. Still both of these events had
sustained winds of 27 to 37 mph which blew down trees and caused
power outage.

After the initial system, there is yet another period of
increased winds expected to occur late Friday night into Saturday
across the Interior from Tanana trough greater Fairbanks area to
Tok. Although snow is only expected to accumulation another
couple inches as much of the heavy snow tapered off, the next
impact will be the stronger winds. The 850 mb winds show 45 to 60
mph with nearly 6 standard deviations above normal according to
the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). This means
that the potential exists for much stronger winds down to the
valley floor on Friday night into Saturday and stronger northwest
winds than with the initial storm system coming into the area on
Thursday and Friday. Likely will either need to extend the current
winter storm warnings for near zero visibility in blowing snow or
potentially to upgrade to a blizzard warning. Main impacts will
be the power outages due to downed power poles with heavy snow and
strong winds and poor travel conditions for the New Year holiday
weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Coastal Flooding potential expected for the West Coast from the
Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait late Thursday night through
Saturday morning with several Coastal Flood Watches posted. The
combination of strong winds, long fetch and expected storm surge
of 4 to 8 feet will likely break up the sea ice so that it's
mobile or potentially push the ice onshore. There is another storm
that will bring stronger southwest winds up to 60 mph across the Norton
Sound and St Lawrence area on Friday. These strong southwest winds
will give the highest chance of flooding along the coast Friday.

North of the Bering Strait there is much uncertainty on how much
water will push north of the Bering Strait and under the ice...but
there is a chance of a surge there from Fri afternoon through Sat
am along the Chukchi Sea Coast. Will assess this further as we get
closer to the event.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ227.

Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

MAK DEC 16