Gale Warning 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

774 
FZAK52 PAFG 151207
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
307 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-160315-
307 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL N OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF
ALASKA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL MOVE W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND A 958
MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

$$

PKZ200-160315-
NORTON SOUND-
307 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-160315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
307 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT...STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-160315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
307 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-160315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
307 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

SDB/DA JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
242 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 24 HOURS BEFORE WE SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE BIG ISSUE IS
THE HANDLING OF THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
ITS EVOLUTION AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOFS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CONFUSED PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MODELS AND NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECASTS A BIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH WITH A 511 DAM LOW OVER THE BERING
STRAIT LIES SOUTHEAST TO SITKA AND WILL PULL BACK NORTHWEST AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 521 DAM
WITH THE TROUGH ONLY EXTENDING TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. THE LOW
WOBBLE AROUND A BIT AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL WILL LIE SOMEWHERE
OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AT 524 DAM WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AT 528 DAM. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST AND A 538
DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY OVER SLEETMUTE. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MAIN RIDGE
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR
LATE FRIDAY. CONFUSION WITH THE LOWS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE CENTRAL
INTERIOR CONTINUES...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE LOWS CONSOLIDATING
OVER THE NORTON SOUND REGION AND MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
WITH WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 1003
MB LOW LIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. A 992 MB LOW WILL DRIFT WEST
OVER KAMCHATKA. A 974 MB LOW LIES JUST SOUTH OF ATKA...A 993 MB
LOW LIES OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ALL OF THESE LOWS WILL
BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT MOVES FROM 42N 170W TO 48N 152W BY
FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO 51N 156W BY SATURDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSISTS NORTH OF 75N IN THE HIGH ARCTIC.

SATELLITE...MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 14/0917Z
NOT MUCH HELP THIS TIME AROUND OVER THE ARCTIC AS HIGH CLOUDS
MASK MOST OF THE AREA. IT DOES INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD PATCH OF
STRATUS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND PATCHES OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS
OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS...AS WELL AS
THE LOWER YUKON DELTA.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PRETTY HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY
WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS THE ARCTIC. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WITH SOME
PERIODS OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. A 1011 MB LOW WILL
MOVE OVER DEMARCATION POINT LATER TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WEST OF KUPARUK.
WITH THE LOW MOVING TO DEMARCATION POINT THE WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST...BUT WILL SWING AROUND THE DIAL AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST THEN RETURN TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...998 MB LOW OVER THE BERING
STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE ENDING
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND
DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO MAJOR FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS ON THE COAST WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THE
EXCEPTION ON THE COAST WILL BE THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WHICH WILL
SEE WINDS PICK UP TO 15 TO 30 MPH EAST OF ANVIK LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE THE UPPER
NOATAK...KOBUK NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THE WEEKEND TO 20 TO 45 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK BAROCLINIC AREA ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
PERSIST WITH IT. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING AROUND
FAIRBANKS...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR TODAY...THEN SLOW CLEARING OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST TO 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THE
SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT
INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS
OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS AND ALL SUMMITS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EAGLE SUMMIT WILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TANANA JET PICKS UP LATE SATURDAY SO GUSTY
WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WHEN THEY DO PICK UP. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS NEAR 15
BELOW... BUT LOOK FOR WARMER CONDITIONS ON THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

&&

SDB JAN 16