Gale Warning 154, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
423 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a ridge over eastern Alaska and
NW Canada with a trough over NE Russia and the Bering Sea. This
pattern is progressive with the trough moving east over mainland
Alaska Mon and then east into Canada Wed as another ridge builds
over the Bering Tue and over mainland Alaska Wed and Thu.
Generally above normal temperatures over northern Alaska will cool
to near normal by Tue and Wed and then warm to well above normal
from Thu into next weekend. A strong short wave moving east
through the ridge late in the week will bring the possibility of
heavy snow in the second half of the week with a slight chance of
freezing rain.

A short wave trough just north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will
move along the Arctic Coast Mon...and over the Northern Interior
Tue with a weak low aloft near the Bering Strait. An area of
flurries and fog along the trough will drift south with the
trough.

The low aloft near the Bering Strait will spin up a surface low
over the Seward Pen Mon night and Tue...and will move to near
Bettles by 3pm Wed. There will be light snow with this feature
with 1-2 inches possible.

Surface...
A 966 mb low in the central Bering Sea will persist today then
drift slowly southeast and weaken. An occluded front stretching
from that low to Provideniya to a low in Bristol Bay will remain
quasi-stationary today with the frontal wave moving northwest
to the northern Bering Sea tonight. Snow will continue along the
front with another 2-4 inches along the front through Mon.
Easterly gales along and just north of the front will continue
through Mon causing blowing snow. This is cause visibility less
than 1 nm in blowing snow from the Bering Strait south and winter
weather advisories for zones 211 213 214 and 215 along with strong
winds in zone 212. Will also spread strong winds and blowing snow
to the POint Hope Area tonight through Tue.

A warm front stretching east from the frontal wave will move
north to Gambell to Anvik by 3pm Sun...to Gambell to Galena by 3am
Mon...and the Bering Strait to Ambler to Tanana by 3pm Mon and to
the Red Dog to Bettles to Denali by 3am Tue. There will be a snow
along the warm front along the coast with a chance of snow inland.
The snow inland will become more likely Tue as the flow aloft
become very weak.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well at 500 mb and show similar solutionsthrough
3pm Tue. After that time models show differences in timing and
strength of short waves moving east across Alaska but still
similar with long wave pattern. GFS again moves precipitation
further north than the NAM and ECMF. Since the snow had already
moved to the Seward Peninsula Sat evening north of where the ECMF
and NAM indicated, we prefer the GFS solution which pushes the
snow north of the Seward Pen Sun night and Mon.

At the surface models again initialize about 8mb too weak on the
high pressure centered along the Alcan border. This will keep
easterly drainage winds in the Interior and along the West Coast
stronger than what models indicate through Sun night and possibly
into Mon. Models show similar solutions through 3pm mon...then
differ with frontal wave moving north along the West Coast. Favor
the GFS solution which moves that low north to the Seward Pen by
Tue which reflects the upper level low dropping south to the
Bering Strait and spinning up this low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Major Blizzard Possible
along the west coast Wed and Thu with High surf possible St
Lawrence Island and Bering Strait.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-
AKZ215.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JB DEC 16