Gale Warning 145, NWS Fairbanks, AK

217 
FZAK51 PAFG 232227
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
127 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-241500-
127 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 75N
170W WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AND OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A 1010 MB LOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH FRI THEN MOVE
SLOWLY N.

$$

PKZ225-241500-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
127 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-241500-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
127 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-241500-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
127 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-241500-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
127 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-241500-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
127 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

SDB NOV 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1256 AM AKST Wed Nov 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z analysis and
verified well against the 06z analysis. Model spread is minimal in
the short range, however model spread increases considerably
between the gfs and ecmwf by the weekend and early next week
and continue to diverge on solutions into next week. Model spread
from model run to model run continues to increase in the long
range.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a 503 DAM low just west of Banks Island will
continue dig south and west to be located 200 nm north of the
McKenzie Delta Thursday morning and just north of Demarcation
Point Friday morning. An upper level trough extending south and
west from the upper level low will extend over the eastern Brooks
Range and northern interior Friday and Saturday.

At 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks will drop from around 8
below this morning to 14 below Thursday morning and Friday but
will warm to around 10 below Saturday and Sunday as weak overunning
develops over the southern interior as winds from around 500 mb to
700 mb turn southwest ahead of a 500 mb trough extending
southwestward from near Barter Island to Bettles to Unalakleet. A
weak upper level low will flatten an upper level ridge over the
northern Gulf of Alaska as it pushes east from Bristol Bay
Saturday evening to Cook Inlet Sunday morning and weakens to a
trough over the southeast interior Sunday night. As the upper
level low moves east to the south of the interior, low level winds
will become southerly over the Alaska Range and southern interior
limiting moisture via weak chinook flow that is available over
the southern interior south especially the middle and upper Tanana
Valley. Very light snow accumulations or flurries are possible
south and east of Fairbanks Saturday morning with light snow
accumulations possible to the north and west of Fairbanks through
the day Saturday.

Models continue to display considerable spread late this weekend
and early next week with seasonably cool and cloudy conditions
over the interior while the ecmwf drops a very cold air mass into
the interior with 850 mb temperatures dropping to around 20 to 24
below over Fairbanks by early next week. Again temperatures will
be highly dependent on cloud cover that remains over the interior
and north slope early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.
&&

CCC NOV 16