Gale Warning 128, NWS Fairbanks, AK

444 
FZAK69 PAFG 022205
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
205 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-031230-
205 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC
OCEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW
PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE OFFSHORE ARCTIC WATERS.


$$

PKZ500-031230-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
205 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-031230-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
205 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-031230-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
205 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RF/LTH NOV 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
405 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z analysis and
verified well against the 06z analysis. Model spread from family
suite to family suite remains minimal in the short range but is
displaying some run to run continuity problems in the short range
and mid range. Model spread remains considerable in the long range.

Aloft at 500 hpa, models have backed off on the strength of a
short wave moving northwest into the interior Wednesday night and
Thursday. Current model runs have also backed off attending
moisture from surface to 700 hpa as well as any upper level
circulation over the interior. Have backed off amounts of snow
over the southern interior especially near Fairbanks as the
system appears moisture starved and have will have little lifting
aloft to generate much snow over the southern interior. The system
appears to enter an area of better lift aloft as it passes to the
north of Fairbanks. Some minor snow accumulations are possible
especially north and west of Fairbanks.

On the surface a 1030 mb high pressure system near the pole
combined with a low pressure trough over the North Slope are
creating onshore flow north of a trough along a Demarcation Point
to Howard Pass line. The trough will continue to push to the
south as the high pressure to the north preses south. Low ceilings
an fog encompass most of the north slope and freezing drizzle is
noted over the eastern North Slope and areas just inland as
expansive open water to the north and east adds to available
moisture. Low ceilings, brisk northeast winds and patchy freezing
drizzle are expected to continue through tonight in these areas.

The pressure gradient between a high pressure system over the
Yukon and a weak low pressure trough over the western interior are
creating a Tanana Valley Jet. Southeast to east winds with gusts
30 to 40 mph continue from Delta Junction west to near Tanana.
These winds are expected to diminish this afternoon as the high
pressure system retreats to the east in the Yukon and as the
trough over the western interior moves north into the Brooks
Range. Moisture advecting northwestward into the interior appears
to be pretty meager with the next shortwave. The upper level
dynamics look much less impressive as compared to previous model
runs so snow amounts have been trimmed back considerably from
Fairbanks southward for Wednesday night and Thursday and have been
reduced to the north of Fairbanks..

Colder airmass to the north of the state will still move
southward but not to the extent as models previously advertised
with the coldest air remaining north of the Brooks Range through
the weekend. Temperatures in the Fairbanks area will gradually
drop to seasonable levels by the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 16