Gale Warning 127, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 PM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2016

corrected hazards

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Trending toward a change in overall pattern over the
areas of concern. They continue to do well in the short term and
will go with the same methodology as the past few days for
development of the short term forecast. A blend of the current
solutions and the current forecast database will provide excellent
forecast continuity over the area. The models a trending to
developing a low over the Canadian Archipelago with troughing over
the eastern arctic, ridging from the western arctic extending
southeast over Barrow to Alberta Canada. A morphing low pattern
will continue over the Bering Sea with several low spinning
around, and troughing extending southeast to the northeast
Pacific. The extended periods still have diverging patterns, but
there is enough similarity that a blend leaning toward the ECMWF
should provide a good baseline to work from.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge over the eastern interior with 549 dam
height reaching over Barter Island will cutoff with a 551 dam
closed high center moving over the northern Yukon Territory by
Sunday morning. A series of shortwave continues to spin up the
west coast around the 494 dam low that is moving north into
Siberia this afternoon. The most significant shortwave the next 24
hours lies from the central Bering Sea over the Pribilofs and Sand
Point into the northeast Pacific and will move to lie from the
northwest Gulf of Anadyr over St Lawrence Island to western Kodiak
Island and south by Sunday morning, then into the arctic by Sunday
evening. A 500 dam low will develop on the northern Chukotsk
Peninsula coast this evening and move west over the Siberian coast
through Sunday. A 500 dam low will develop over the central
Aleutain this evening and move to the Pribilof Islands late
Sunday morning at 499 dam. The closed high over the Yukon will
move west over the eastern arctic plain by Tuesday morning at 542
dam, and over the western arctic plain by Wednesday morning at 539
dam. A 498 dam low over eastern Canada will move northwest over
the Canadian Archipelago by Tuesday morning and a trough will
develop over the northeast arctic and move south over the Beaufort
Sea by Wednesday morning as a 502 dam low develops over Banks
Island. The 499 dam low over the pribilofs Sunday will move north
to St matthew Island by Monday evening, and into the north central
Bering Sea by Tuesday evening. At 850 hpa...With ridging to the
east, some warm air will remain over the state with temperatures
as warm as 3 above celsius over the central interior and the zero
isotherm extending north and west over the coasts through Tuesday.
A sliver of warm air around the front intruding to the north is
creating problems with some light freezing rain extending as far
north as the arctic coast.

Surface...Weather front stretches from north to south, basically
Barrow to Prince William Sound, over the state and continues to
be stretched out as it loses energy moving into the ridge of high
pressure over the eastern interior and away from the low moving
into Siberia. Front will slowly tilt back to the west tonight.
Gap winds will continue, but not as strong as the past 24 hours.
Moisture continue to move north along the front as it tilts back
west so keep cloudy conditions and chance of precipitation in
vicinity of the front. Ridging builds back in over eastern Brooks
Range and eastern interior, with the trough redeveloping over the
arctic coast. A 962 mb low south of the Aleutians will move to the
Pribilof Islands late Sunday morning, then moves northwest to the
Gulf of Anadyr by Tuesday afternoon. Ridging will persist over the
northeast arctic with low pressure over the western arctic.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...East to southeast winds across the
area at 5 to 20 mph the next few days as ridging builds in over the
eastern Brooks Range. Very strong winds west of Point lay will
continue into Sunday morning with gusts to around 60 mph. Some
flurries over the area in the vicinity of the front until it
dissipates late Sunday. Marine stratus moving back over the
coastal areas Sunday may also produce some flurries. Temperatures
will be slightly above seasonal norms as weak warm air is pushed
north.

West Coast and Western Interior...Continues to be active in the
coastal areas with strong winds and high surf. The main front has
moved east into the interior but will tilt back over the western
interior, and moisture moving north along the front will produce
a chance of freezing rain and snow. Along the coastal areas cold
air will advect into the area early this evening, then weak warm
air advection as winds turn from the southeast overnight as
another low moves to the Pribilofs late sunday morning. Storm
surge guidance continues to indicate another surge this afternoon
and late into the evening along the coast, but not expecting
anything more than elevated surf in the south facing coastal
areas. Temperatures will continue to be a bit warmer than seasonal
norms.

Central and Eastern Interior...A few sprinkles around the area
into the evening, but mainly north of Fairbanks and west of Fort
Yukon. Winds generally light and variable. Some patchy fog around
the area tonight. Temperatures will be a bit warm for this time of
the year around Fairbanks with lows in the teens and highs through
Monday in the lower 30s.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Surf Advisory FOR AKZ211-AKZ213.

Freezing Rain Advisory FOR AKZ216-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221- AKZ227.

High Wind Warning FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213.

Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB OCT 16