Gale Warning 120, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Initialized well against the 27/18Z surface analysis, and
continue to perform well in the short term with only minor
differences in timing of the shortwaves as the move up the west
coast. Mid range and extended periods are bit muddier with models
diverging as they get further out, so will lean toward a equal
blend in the midrange, suing more of the ECMWF as we get further
into the extended periods. For the short term, will use an equal
blend of the latest guidance and current forecast database. Will
need to make some local edits Continue to perform well in the
short term with some spread in solutions as they move into the mid
range, and significant spread in the extended periods. Active
weather pattern over the Bering Sea and west coast will continue
for the foreseeable future as systems move through the area every
2 to 3 days.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge with 553 dam center remains over the
Northwest Territory in Canada with ridging extending west over the
central and eastern interior. The center will merge with a ridge
over Alberta and move southeast. A 529 dam closed low over the
northeast Pacific will move southeast. A building ridge over the
north Pacific extends over the central Aleutians and will slide
east over the Alaska Peninsula this evening, then over Kodiak
Island and Cook Inlet by Friday morning, then builds north over
the western interior Friday morning. The ridge then slides east to
lie from Seward to Nenana to Kuparuk Friday night, and from
Cordova to Delta to Barter Island by Saturday morning, and
persists over the eastern third of the state into next week. A 498
dam low over the western Bering Sea will move will spin into the
west central Bering Sea by Friday evening, then dissipate as a 495
dam low develops over southern Siberia by Saturday morning, then
moves into central Siberia Saturday evening. A relatively strong
shortwave associated with the low lies from The Gulf of Anadyr
over St lawrence island to southern Kodiak Island and will move
northeast to lie from the Bering Strait to Anvik to southern
Kodiak Island late this evening. The shortwave will continue to
move northeast tonight to lie from Wainwright to Arctic Village
to a 545 dam low, that was over the Copper River Basin earlier
today, over Eagle by Friday morning. The low over Eagle will
drift south over the yukon Territory, and eventually over the
southeast Panhandle. Another shortwave will spin around the low
and lie from the western Gulf of Anadyr to St Matthew Island to
Nikolski late Friday evening, and from central Chukchi Sea to nome
to Sand Point by Saturday morning, then stalls over the northwest
coast and western interior and dissipates by Sunday morning. At
850 hpa...Temperatures remain fairly steady with a few warm pulses
that push it up to around 3 above celsius over the interior, and
to near zero celsius over the central arctic coast.

Surface...High pressure will persists over the central and eastern
interior as a couple of weather fronts move up the west coast. A
weak weather front will move up the coast tonight and merge into a
trough over the arctic coast. A low in the northeast Pacific will
move south. A 974 mb low in the central Bering Sea will move north
to the Gulf of Anadyr by Friday morning with a 968 mb developing
along the front and moving to the Pribilof Islands by Friday
morning. The low will move from the Pribilofs to St Lawrence
Island by Friday evening with a strong pressure gradient
developing over the western interior, west coast, and Chukchi Sea.
Strong gap winds will also develop in the Alaska Range as a
leeside trough sets up north of the range and the pressure gradient
compacts south of the range. The front will move to the northwest
coast and Western Brooks Range by Saturday morning, and into the
western arctic late Saturday morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Active pattern over the northwest
coast and Chukchi Sea continues. Strong winds will develop Friday
afternoon west of Wainwright as a strong weather front moves up
the coast out of the Bering Sea. mostly high clouds over the area,
but some stratus will move inland or develop over the area as the
trough persists and moisture advects into the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...Very windy and very wet the next
36 to 48 hours. A strong storm will send a weatehr front through
the area tonight and another through late Friday. Winds will be
similar to the storm earlier this week with a strong potential for
wind gusts exceeding 70 mph from St Lawrence Island to Point Hope
and points in between. With the wind will come the rain with
rainfall amounts over the coastal areas ranging from 0.50 to 1.00
inch. Some areas could see a mix with snow at times, but mainly
the higher elevations since the system will be bringing in some
warmer air at the surface. The most likely area to see some
accumulating snow will be the south slopes of the western Brooks
Range. Like the last system that moved through, high surf will be
the primary concern, though some inundation of coastal areas is
also possible.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear in the interior with
the exception of the upper Tanana Valley where stratus has moved
down valley out of the Yukon Territory into the area with some
flurries. Expect that to continue into Friday then dissipate in
the afternoon. Winds will increase through the week, but there
may be a period when some high clouds move through the central
interior Wednesday. Warming temperatures during the day, but with
clear skies and good radiational cooling at night expect the lows
will not change much this week unless we get some clouds into the
area. Generally light winds in the interior from the east and
northeast.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Models developing yet
another low to move into the Bering Sea Sunday which could produce
at least some high surf, so will need to track this over the next
couple of models runs before making any decisions.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Surf Advisory FOR AKZ211-AKZ213.

High Wind Warning FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ214.

Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ215-PKZ225.

Gale Warning FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

Storm Warning FOR PKZ210.

&&

SDB OCT 16