Gale Warning 102, NWS Fairbanks, AK

363 
FZAK69 PAFG 251121
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
321 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-260030-
321 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...

$$

PKZ500-260030-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
321 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-260030-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
321 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-260030-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
321 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

RF/LTH OCT 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
A high amplitude long wave pattern consisting of ridge over
mainland Alaska and a deep trough over the western Bering Sea and
the NW Pacific. The pattern will moves slowly east with the trough
expanding east over the entire Bering Sea by Tue...and over
western mainland Alaska by the weekend with the ridge moving east
to the Alcan Border by the weekend. This means that a series of
strong short waves will make their way NE across the Bering Sea
this week with each system having a more easterly track than the
previous system.

This pattern will keep a series of very strong storms moving
across the Bering Sea and into the West Coast and Western Interior of
Alaska through the weekend bringing periods of rain, strong winds,
and above normal temperatures. The Arctic Coast will remain above
normal for temperatures due to the large expanse of open water
along the coast...while the Interior will remain generally near
dry and near normal for temperatures through Fri then becoming
more snowy on the weekend.

A weak low aloft near Burwash Landing will move south tonight.
This is causing a patch of stratus and light snow from Tok
southeast that will diminish this afternoon as the low moves
south.

One short wave trough that lies from Point Hope to Anvik will move
to Prudhoe Bay to Denali by 4am Tue...and along the Alcan Border
Tue morning. Since this is moving in to a strong ridge expect
little weather to move east of Point Hope other than some flurries
along the North Slope.

A second and very strong short wave in the western Bering Sea will
move to Cape Navarin to the eastern Aleutians by 4am Tue...to the
Bering Strait to Bristol Bay by 4pm Tue...and to Point Lay to
Bristol Bay by 4am Wed...and to Barrow to McGrath by 4pm Wed. A
strong occluded front and weather and winds associated with this
will be addressed with the surface front below.

A third short wave in the NW Pacific will move to the SE Bering
Sea by 4am Wed...and then elongating north and south along the YK
Delta Wed...and then stretch north along the West Coast Wed night
and Thu. This will bring rain showers to the West Coast south
Kotzebue Wed and Thu and scattered rain and snow showers from
Kotzebue north Wed night and Thu.

A fourth short wave will move into the central Bering Sea Thu and
cause another surface low to rapidly deepen then.

Surface...
A 1032 mb low over the Alcan Border with a ridge will slowly
weaken through Wed. This is causing east winds to blow down usual
drainage areas such as the Tanana River and Yukon Rivers.

An occluded front from just west of Point Hope to Bethel will move
to Prudhoe Bay to Denali by 4am Tue and then East of the Alcan
Border Tue pm. There is light snow along the front now that will
taper diminish this evening as the front moves into the strong
ridge aloft with little weather tonight except for flurries with
the front along the North Slope. There are winds southeast 20-30
kt with gusts to 45 kt along the front north of Kotzebue that will
decrease this evening as the front moves east.

A very strong 950 mb low in the northwest Bering Sea will move to
150 nm west of Anadyr as a 952 mb low by 4pm Tue...and to 300 nm
NW of Anadyr as a 967 mb low by 4pm Wed. A strong occluded front
stretching southeast from this low will move to Anadyr to the
Eastern Aleutians by 4am Tue...to the Bering Strait to Bethel by
4pm Tue...to Wainwright to Mcgrath by 4am Wed...and to Nuiqsut to
Tanana to McGrath by 4pm Wed. There are now south winds to 50kt
along the front that will move northeast across the Bering Sea
with the front. Expect 40-50kt winds to hit St Lawrence Island
after midnight tonight...to the Bering Strait...Yukon Delta and
Point Hope by early Tue am and then spread to the remainder of the
west coast by late Tue morning. The strong winds will spread east
with the front but decrease Tue night as the front moves inland.
Winds will turn SW 20-30kt behind the front.

These winds will cause a storm surge of 3-5 ft from the Bering
Strait south which is expected to cause high surf all south and
west facing coasts west of Golovin and Kotlik...and only very
minimal flooding of low lying sloughs. This will also cause high
surf Tue and Tue night from Red Dog Port north to Point Hope.

There will be widespread rain with the front along the coast Tue
and Tue Night...with snow or mixed precipitation from Kotzebue
northeast east over cooler inland areas. Precipitation will
spread inland with the front over the western Interior Tue night
and then diminish Wed.

Another strong low will move into the southern Bering Sea Wed
pm...to the central Bering Thu. At this time this looks like it
will bring strong winds and more rain to zones 213 and 214 Thu.
Due to model uncertainty hard to say impacts for Fri but this
system has potential to bring another round of high winds and high
water to the West Coast Thu night into Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models show similar solutions through 4am Wed...thereafter we
start to see differences on timing and strength and location of
short waves in the Bering Sea. We will use mainly the GFS through
Wed and then transition to a mix of GFS and the ECMF Thu and to
the ensembles by Fri. The strong dynamics argue for keeping a very
strong low in the Northern Bering Sea Thu night and Fri as both
GFS and ECMF show...but the location may have some error and thus
the location and orientation of strong winds will as well from Fri
on.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A storm surge of 3-5 ft from the Bering Strait south on Tue is
expected to cause high surf to all south and west facing coasts
west of Golovin and Stebbins Tue...and only very minimal and low
impact flooding of low lying sloughs. This will also cause high
surf Tue and Tue night from Red Dog Port north to Point Hope.

Another strong low will move into the southern Bering Sea Wed
pm...to the central Bering Thu...and to the northern Bering Fri.
At this time this looks like it will bring strong winds and more
rain to zones 213 and 214 Thu. Due to model uncertainty hard to
say impacts for Fri-Sun...but this system has potential to bring
another round of high winds and high water with potential
flooding to the West Coast Thu night into Sat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

High Wind Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Storm Warning for PKZ210.
&&

JB OCT 16