Brisk Wind Advisory 77, NWS Fairbanks, AK

897 
FZAK52 PAFG 102358
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
258 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-111230-
258 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL EXTEND INTO THE
BERING SEA THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ200-111230-
NORTON SOUND-
258 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-111230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
258 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-111230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
258 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-111230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
258 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BLOWING
SNOW.
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

NS/ET FEB 16

964 
FZAK52 PAFG 111202
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
302 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-120315-
302 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL EXTEND INTO THE
BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ200-120315-
NORTON SOUND-
302 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-120315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
302 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-120315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
302 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. FOG.
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-120315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
302 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

RF/DA FEB 16

581 
FZAK52 PAFG 112314
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
214 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-121230-
214 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING FROM
BRISTOL BAY TO THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA FRI AND PERSIST INTO
SAT. A 998 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR POINT HOPE ON SAT. 

$$

PKZ200-121230-
NORTON SOUND-
214 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-121230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
214 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-121230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
214 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-121230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
214 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

FEB 16

715 
FZAK52 PAFG 121209
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
309 AM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-130315-
309 AM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A 998 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR POINT HOPE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ200-130315-
NORTON SOUND-
309 AM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-130315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
309 AM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-130315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
309 AM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-130315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
309 AM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RF/DA FEB 16

976 
FZAK52 PAFG 122339
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-131230-
239 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUN. A 1003 MB LOW NEAR KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE TO
POINT HOPE AS A 997 MB LOW BY 3PM SAT...AND TO 100 NM NORTHWEST OF
POINT HOPE AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 3PM SUN. A WEATHER FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE LOW TO WAINWRIGHT TO BARTER ISLAND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUN. 

$$

PKZ200-131230-
NORTON SOUND-
239 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-131230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
239 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-131230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
239 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W. FOG. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-131230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
239 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

FEB 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES AND HAS IMPROVED IN THE 24 TO 60 HOUR RANGE. WILL USE
THE SAME FORECAST METHODOLOGY TODAY BY LEANING ON AN EVEN BLEND
FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE
AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH
540 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AS A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE WEST TO THE UPPER KOBUK THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER KOTZEBUE
SOUND FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND DRIFTING INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. A CHUNK OF THE RIDGE BROKE OFF AND A 540 DAM HIGH DEVELOPED
OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A
SECOND CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...WHILE
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE SINCE YESTERDAY...A 1046 MB HIGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND. AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE PINCHES A BIT AND SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER SUMMITS IN THE
INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A NICE BAND OF
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING
WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED
IMAGE FROM 09/2023Z...08/2001Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF
STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS THE RIDGE PINCHES SOUTH A BIT SO
EXPECT AND INCREASE IN THE BLOWING SNOW CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND IN THE
ALASKA RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB FEB 16