Brisk Wind Advisory 54, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE ONGOING AND POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ALASKA WEST COAST AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE INTERIOR. 29/12Z DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
SPREAD THEREAFTER.

SURFACE...A 983 MB LOW 120 MILES NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL
DRIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A CONGLOMERATION OF
LOWS STRETCHING FROM OVER THE RAT ISLANDS TO ROUGHLY 500 MILES
SOUTH WILL CONGEAL INTO A 964 MB LOW NEAR ADAK STATION SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH TOWARDS THE KORYAK MOUNTAINS IN
RUSSIA. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL
DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL
REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL SHIFT
NORTH TOWARDS POINT HOPE AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
COINCIDING WITH ITS REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA SATURDAY AND THEN PROCEED NORTH. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN ALASKA...MAIN CONCERN IS WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BLIZZARD WARNING WAS CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING. OBSERVING
SITES ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST ARE NO
LONGER REPORTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND NO LONGER WARRANT A
BLIZZARD WARNING. LOW VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THUS THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY ONCE AGAIN FOR SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST AS WELL AS COASTAL
AREAS IN THE YUKON DELTA. THE NEXT LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH
INTO THE BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE YUKON
DELTA COAST...SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT
COAST...RAMPING UP WINDS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE FRESH SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
CREATE PROBLEMS WITH POOR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. WILL ALLOW
FUTURE SHIFTS TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL AND TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING.

ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR...SPORADIC REPORTS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT VARYING SITES FROM MOUNTAIN
VILLAGE TO KIVALINA AND RED DOG MINE WITH ONLY TRACE MEASUREMENTS
REPORTED SO FAR. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA COAST AS WELL AS THE NULATO HILLS.

NORTH SLOPE...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IN STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK WHERE STRATUS
AND FOG ARE PUSHED OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND AT THE
MOMENT...SOME COOLING IS HINTED IN THE MODELS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT MAYBE LOW CHANCES FOR THE FAR
EASTERN INTERIOR. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

LTH JAN 16