Brisk Wind Advisory 52, NWS Fairbanks, AK

528 
FZAK52 PAFG 292337
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
237 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-301445-
237 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUKCHI
AND NORTHERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. A 966 MB LOW NEAR ATKA SAT
EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SAT NIGHT.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ALASKA WEST COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ200-301445-
NORTON SOUND-
237 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-301445-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
237 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-301445-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
237 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-301445-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
237 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

LTH/NTS JAN 16

875 
FZAK52 PAFG 301255
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
355 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-310400-
355 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEAK 996 MB LOW JUST WEST OF POINT HOPE WILL WEAKEN TO 1007 MB
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR POINT LAY BY EARLY SUN MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES A TROUGH ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. A 965 MB LOW 50 NM NORTH
OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AS A 965
MB LOW BY EARLY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-310400-
NORTON SOUND-
355 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-310400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
355 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-310400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
355 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-310400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
355 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SE. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT.
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CF/JK JAN 16

908 
FZAK52 PAFG 310023
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
323 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-311215-
323 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 994 MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN TO 999 MB AS IT
MOVES NORTH TO NEAR POINT HOPE THIS EVENING AND AS A 1003 MB LOW
AS IT MOVES NEAR BARROW SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROUGH AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-311215-
NORTON SOUND-
323 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-311215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
323 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.MON...SE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-311215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
323 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-311215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
323 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CCC/LTH JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
204 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

UPDATED MARINE HAZARDS.

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC SLOPE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST WEST OF DALL POINT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TO NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN OPEN UP INTO
A TROUGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AND NORTHERN BERING SEA DURING THE DAYS 1-3 PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF RECENT RUNS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IN
BUILDING A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ALASKA MAINLAND OVER
THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN SIBERIA COAST TO CAPE LISBURNE TO NEAR YAKUTAT AND
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA...WEST COAST AREAS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTH...AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. OUT WEST...A
STRONG UPPER LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND TO 100-150 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
NAVARIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...
A 971 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF DALL POINT WILL MOVE
TO ABOUT 50 NM NORTHWEST OF DALL POINT BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE
FILLING TO 986 MB...THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING STRAIT
AND THE BERING SEA NORTH AND WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND WEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...WITH A RESULTANT 960-965 MB LOW CENTER MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE
LOW WILL IS EXPECTED TO FILL TO A 970-975 MB CENTER AROUND 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE NAVARIN.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OUT
IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WEATHER FRONT. EAST WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE UP TO
AROUND 4 INCHES. THE MAJOR WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT WEST COAST AREAS ON THE MAINLAND WILL
LIKELY SEE SMALLER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

IN THE SHORTER TERM ON THE WEST COAST...LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE CONTINUING ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST...AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AS
SNOWFALL PICKS UP SOME. ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
BERING STRAIT IS PRODUCING NORTH WINDS TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 70 MPH AT TIN CITY.

ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST...MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF FLURRIES AND FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TONIGHT.

IN THE INTERIOR...EAST WINDS TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN
THE DELTA JUNCTION/FT GREELY AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE NORTHWAY-BIG DELTA PRESSURE DIFFERENCE DECREASES.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6-10 DAY 500 MB HEIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD
FEB 1-5 AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR FEB 3 INDICATE A MEAN
RIDGE POSITION OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A WEAK HIGH CENTER NORTH
OF THE ARCTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND ARCTIC SLOPE. THE CURRENT CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES A 33 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALMOST ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA AND A 33 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN ALASKA. THE CURRENT NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 INDICATES POSITIVE ANOMALIES OF 9 TO
AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA. FOR WEEK
2...POSITIVE ANOMALIES FALL WITHIN THE 2 TO 6 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE
FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA. CURRENT OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND...SOUTHERN WEST COAST AREAS...AND THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TIMING AND TRACK
OF ANY SUCH FEATURES ASSOCIATED SURFACE WEATHER THAT MIGHT EVOLVE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JAN 16