Brisk Wind Advisory 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
146 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
REASONABLE IN THE SHORT RANGE AND INTO THE MID RANGE BEFORE
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD UNFOLDS BY 84 HOURS.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM NEAR
SEATTLE TO WHITEHORSE TO PRUDHOE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
THE NORTH AS A 500 DAM LOW CURRENTLY 300 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY
MOVES NORTH TO BE LOCATED OVER COLD BAY THIS EVENING AND OVER
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY MORNING. NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING
AROUND 2 BELOW THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY RISING TO ZERO TO 2
ABOVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES
PROGRESS NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND DECREASE WITH THE WAVES MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE FLOW AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME RESULTANT SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. 850 TO 700 MB
WINDS WILL ON AVERAGE BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE CREST OF THE ALASKA
RANGE AND VARY FROM 30 TO 50 KTS AS SHORT WAVES MOVE NORTH AND
OCCASIONALLY SET UP WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVES THAT WILL FORCE STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SURFACE PERIODICALLY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...MONITOR FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG AN AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF
BARROW SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
SLOPE. AS THE INVERTED ROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BERING STRAIT
AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN UPDATED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING AS THE LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS AND SNOW THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

THE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS
958 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT MOVES NORTHWEST INTO BRISTOL BAY AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH ROTATES NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. THE NAM12
CREATES A MUCH STRONGER GRADIENT THAN DOES THE GFS40 WITH MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS FORECASTED FOR THAT AREA. THE NAM12 OF LATE
HAS BEEN OVER PLAYING THE GRADIENT IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER FORECASTING THE WIND ON THE NORTH SLOPE SO WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE GFS40 WITH WEAKER GRADIENT. FALLING SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY SO LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER FALLING SNOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC JAN 16