Brisk Wind Advisory 44, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
137 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE TODAY...AND EVEN INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEFORE THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
THEY ALL INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. NO
CHANGE IN FORECAST METHODOLOGY TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
BY ONLY NUDGING THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE WITH AN EQUAL BLEND
OF THE MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE MAINLAND. A 503
DAM LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST. A
509 DAM LOW NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AS HEIGHTS FALL TO 503 DAM BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTS SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF ATKA AT 500 DAM
TUESDAY EVENING. A 497 DAM LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER
BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY EVENING AT 498 DAM...THEN WEAKENS AND MERGES
WITH THE LOW NEAR ATKA. YET ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC TUESDAY TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY EVENING AT 499
DAM...AND THEN OVER BRISTOL BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 502 DAM AS
IT ABSORBS THE LOW NEAR ATKA. A WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS LIES FROM THE LOW TO ANCHORAGE TO SITKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM THE LOW TO NOME TO BEAVER
TO EAGLE LATE THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. AS THE 502 DAM LOW MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING A RELATIVELY STRONG
GRADIENT DEVELOPS FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...NO CHANGE HERE IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK AND THAT
MEANS WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ROSE FROM AROUND 9 BELOW
CELSIUS YESTERDAY TO AROUND 3 BELOW CELSIUS THIS MORNING AND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 2 ABOVE CELSIUS BEFORE A
SLOW COOLING TREND BEGINS.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN AROUND 950ISH MB LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC CONTINUES OVER THE STATE. INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC CONTINUES TODAY BUT WILL FLATTEN OUT
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS 956 MB LOW MOVES INTO
BRISTOL BAY LATE MONDAY EVENING...THEN DISSIPATES NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY EVENING AT 948 MB...AND OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY EVENING AT 958 MB. 1028ISH MB HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS BANKS ISLAND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRATUS...FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW...FOG...BLOWING SNOW...POOR
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE IT LETS UP A
BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER NEXT FEW DAYS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BRING LIGHT SNOW OR SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND IT WILL LET
UP A BIT AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT...BUT IT WILL NOT END. EXPECT
FLURRIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT MONDAY THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER
THE AREA AND WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...AND TO 25 TO 35 GUSTING TO 50 MPH
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONE 227.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SCRAPS OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EVEN AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
INTERIOR. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS RANGE MONDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA. GAP FLOW WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
BELOW 65 MPH. TANANA JET ALSO KICKS IN AROUND DELTA JUNCTION SO
EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH THERE. OTHERWISE...WINDS NORTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. WARMING
TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS THEN A SLOW COOLING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 16