Brisk Wind Advisory 38, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
158 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY TIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN
CHANNELED AREAS AND OVER SUMMITS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL AREAS FROM POINT HOPE TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.
WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND EVEN DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC ARE PUSHING
COLDER INTERIOR TO THE COAST AND CREATING WINDCHILLS AROUND 50
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA
AND BERING SEA COASTS.

FRI AND SAT...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW FROM
THE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLACKEN...CAUSING THE HIGHER WINDS THAT WERE PROBLEMATIC EARLIER
IN THE WEEK TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE CALM WEATHER WITH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER
DEPENDING ON YOUR EXACT LOCATION. OF NOTE...IT WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE ARCTIC PLAIN QUITE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING TO AROUND 40 BELOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE AND
THE FORECASTER AGREES WITH THEM SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...A SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD UP THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONTINENT AND INTO EASTERN ALASKA. MEANWHILE...A LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WITH ITS CENTER STATIONED
OVER BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL CREATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WITH A POSSIBLE CHINOOK OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. AS A
RESULT...WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COULD TAKE PLACE IN
THE INTERIOR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SHIFT
IN THE PATTERN...SO A HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL WE WILL SEE A
CHANGE. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE LONG TERM SO A LOWER CONFIDENCE
LEVEL ON THE PARTICULARS LIKE THE STRENGTH AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE FLOW AND CHINOOK. MORE DETAILS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.
&&

EWP/BJB JAN 16