Brisk Wind Advisory 31, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
236 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 24 HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE DIFFERENCES IN THE MAJOR FEATURES. STILL HAVING TROUBLE
HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...BUT NOT AS
BAD AS THE SPAGHETTI YESTERDAY. THERE IS MUCH BETTER CONCENSUS ON
THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. PATTERN IS STILL PRETTY CONFUSED SO WILL CONTINUE
TO USE A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS AND ONLY NUDGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST DATABASE A BIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH WITH A 524 DAM LOW LIES OVER THE
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS
MORNING. A RIDGE LIE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH 538 DAM
CENTERS OVER WESTERN COOK INLET AND SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND. THE
LOW WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWEST OVER THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL GET PINCHED OFF
WITH A 541 DAM CENTER MOVING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUING NORTHWEST INTO SIBERIA. THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CUTOFF RIDGE WILL START BUILDING BACK OVER THE INTERIOR
SATURDAY AND LIE FROM BURWASH LANDING YT TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE ARCTIC NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT
FOR NOW.

SURFACE...WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
1003 MB LOW LIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. NO MAJOR FEATURES TO REALLY
PICK OUT OF THE GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME GRADIENT PINCHING AS
THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH A BIT...SO EXPECT
SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR.

SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 15/0820Z SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH AND EAST OF TANANA IN THE
INTERIOR...OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE CHUKCHI SEA...AS WELL AS
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. HARD TO DETERMINE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY OF
IT AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE IMAGES.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SATELLITE SHOWS THE STRATUS AND
THE GOES IR FROM 15/1030 SHOWS A BIG PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC MOVING WEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT OR
THE STRATUS GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST FROM POINT LAY SOUTH TO PICK UP
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 25 TO 40 MPH IN THOSE AREAS
WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ELSEWHERE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM WHAT THE
MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES. WINDS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA HAVE PICKED UP TO 15 TO
30 MPH GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH IN SOME AREAS EAST OF ANVIK AND WILL
DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK
NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY TO 20 TO 45
MPH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WINDS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF ZONES 210...NORTHERN 212...AND NORTHERN
216 TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BIGGEST ISSUE HERE IS WHERE IS ALL
THE STRATUS GOING TO GO. BIG PATCHES OF BLACK STRATUS DEVELOPED IN
THE AREA YESTERDAY AND THE 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM 15/0820Z SHOWS
IT STILL FLOATING AROUND. HARD TO FIGURE ANY MOVEMENT ON IT AT
THIS TIME WITH ONLY A COUPLE IMAGES...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
MOVING ANYWHERE FAST SO EXPECT THAT IT WILL JUST DISSIPATE IN
PLACE EVENTUALLY. OF COURSE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THIS TYPE OF
STRATUS AT ALL SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH IT. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. NO
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS STILL EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT
INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS
OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS...THE EXCEPTION HERE IS THEY
MAY NOT GET THAT GUSTY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND EAGLE
SUMMIT. EXPECT THE TANANA JET TO KICK IN LATE TONIGHT ALSO WITH
WINDS PICKING UP SATURDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO
45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES AROUND FAIRBANKS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS NEAR 15 BELOW...BUT LOOK FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS
AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB JAN 16