Brisk Wind Advisory 235, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
415 AM AKST Mon Dec 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a trough over the Bering Sea and
Western Alaska with a ridge over NW Canada. The trough will
progress east to a position over mainland AK Tue and then over
Western Canada Wed as another ridge builds over the Bering Sea and
western AK Wed and over mainland AK Thu. This means that the
current above normal temperatures will cool to near normal over
the next several days followed by a rapid warmup late in the week.
A strong short wave moving through the long wave ridge on Thu and
Fri has the potential to bring heavy snow to much of northern AK
late in the week.

A short wave trough along the Arctic Coast of AK will move south
over the Brooks Range tonight and cause a weak low aloft to
develop near the Bering Strait tonight which will persist through
Tue night and then move east to near Bettles Wed. Fog and Flurries
will occur with the trough along the Arctic Coast and then
diminish north of the trough.

Surface...
An arctic cold front along the Arctic coast will move to the
Brooks Range to the Bering Strait to Gambell by 3pm Mon...to
Arctic Village to Point Hope to St Matthew Island by 3am Tue...to
Eagle to Red Dog to Bethel by 3pm Tue and then moving east. Will
see NE winds 20 kt and blowing snow along the front inland areas
and gusts up to 50 kt along the coast coast capes where blowing
snow will cause low visibility.

A 973 mb low in the southern Bering Sea will move east and weaken.
An occluded front stretching from the low north to the Gambell and
then south to Bristol Bay with a warm front from Gambell to
Galena. By 3pm Mon the front will move north to the Bering Strait
with a warm front from the Bering strait to Hughes and the
trailing front into Bristol Bay. By 3am Wed a 985 mb low will
develop over the Seward Pen under the previously mentioned low
aloft...with the occluded front from the low to Red Dog to
McGrath. That low will remain in place through 3am wed with the
front moving east to Kotzebue to Minchumina by 3am Wed and...and
then by 3pm Wed the low will move to Bettles with the front from
Bettles to Fairbanks. Expect light snow to continue through Tue
along the west coast with 2-4 inches...heaviest near the low
center over the Seward Pen. Snow will then move east with the
front to the Central Interior by Tue and to the Eastern Interior
Tue night and Wed.

A very strong low moving into the western Bering Sea on Wed will
move to the northern Bering Sea Thu pm and to the Chukchi Sea
Fri. This could bring storm force winds to the from the southeast
and then southwest to the west coast Wed Night through Fri. Heavy
snow and possible blizzard conditions as well as freezing rain are
possible along the west coast and western Interior Wed night
through Fri. Will need to keep eye on this feature.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
at 500 mb models show similar solutions through 3pm Tue. after
that time the long wave pattern remains similar between models but
start to see difference on timing and strength of short waves. The
GFS and ECMF move the short wave that lies along west coast on Tue
more rapidly eastward than the NAM. Prefer the faster GFS.

The GFS again pushes precipitation north along the west coast
faster than other models and this appears to be matching what is
observed so favor GFS precipitation.

At the surface models initialize a few mb too weak on the higher
pressure over the SE Interior but other wise initialize well.
Start to see differences after 3pm Tue and will follow GFS. Will
add a few kt to easterly drainage winds today in the Eastern
Interior as a result of the pressure gradient being stronger than
models show.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A very strong low moving into the western Bering Sea on Wed will
move to the northern Bering Sea Thu pm and to the Chukchi Sea
Fri. This could bring storm force winds to the west coast Wed
Night through Fri. Could see high surf and possible coastal
flooding in zone 213 with this. Other areas appear to have enough
ice to mitigate surge and surf.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ208-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230.
&&

JB DEC 16