Brisk Wind Advisory 217, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1247 PM AKST Wed Dec 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Significant pattern changes on the way. Short term
agreement is excellent. Initialized well against the 14/18Z
surface analysis. Based on the morning briefing continuity has
been good the last few days with the blocking pattern. All models
agree on the significant pattern shift that will push the main
ridge aloft to the east of Fairbanks by Thursday morning with a
fairly strong shortwave moving across the state through Friday
morning. The transition will be complete by Sunday as the ridge
will be over Canada with a broad troughing pattern over the state.
For this forecast cycle will rely on continuity and blend in some
of the latest GFS and ECMWF guidance. Models are still struggling
with the temperature forecasts for the individual sites, but they
do trend in the correct direction, so will have to individually
work on them.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Primary ridge over the state extends from the
northeast Pacific over Kodiak Island to the Chukchi Sea with 540
dam heights and at least 546 heights over most of the mainland. As
the pattern changes the ridge will move east tonight to lie from
the northeast Pacific over Middleton Island to Prudhoe Bay then
northwest across the arctic, and by Friday morning it will lie
over the southeast panhandle and the eastern Yukon Territory. A
fairly significant shortwave will move over the west coast by
Thursday morning, the western interior by Thursday afternoon, and
will lie from Wainwright to Fairbanks to Prince William Sound
early Thursday morning, then move east into the Yukon Territory by
Friday afternoon. A transitory ridge will move across the state
late Friday and Saturday. A weak shortwave will move northeast
across the central and eastern interior Sunday.

Surface...966 mb low in the western Bering Sea will weaken as it
moves to the northern Bering Sea by Thursday morning then be
absorbed by a 945 mb low moving to the western Aleutians by
Thursday morning. A broad area of strong winds around the low
will bring Gale force winds to the Bering Strait, St Lawrence
Island, and the lower Yukon delta. Broad ridging around a 1043 mb
high over the upper Yukon Flats will slowly move to the east the
next 24 hours. A decaying weather front that is impacting the west
coast today will move into the western interior tonight and into
the central interior by Thursday afternoon as it slowly marches
east. It starts to break up as it moves into the eastern interior
early Friday morning. The 945 mb low in the western Aleutians will
move to the central Bering Sea by Friday morning at 952 mb
bringing a second weather front to the west coast Friday morning
and the potential for slightly stronger winds over the lower
Yukon Delta, St Lawrence Island, and the Bering Strait. The second
front will work into the western interior by Saturday morning and
to the central and eastern interior by Saturday night.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...The decaying front will bring some
snow to the area as it moves across the area tonight and Thursday.
No significant snow, but combined with a little winds, there will
be some visibility issues in blowing snow. Heaviest snow tonight
will be west of Deadhorse where up to 2 inches of snow will fall.
Winds generally northeast to east at 10 to 20 mph. Temperatures
will be on the rise.

West Coast and Western Interior...Active weather pattern out here
the next few days as a couple strong low pressure systems move
north and northwest across the Bering Sea and send a couple
weather fronts across the area. Strong winds developing over the
area tonight will persist through Friday then diminish. Strongest
winds will be over St lawrence Island and the Bering Strait
Thursday night and be primarily from the east to southeast at 30
to 40 mph gusting to around 60 mph. Looks like mainly snow over
the area with the systems and a potential for 4 to 8 inches of
snow over the next few days depending on location.

Central and Eastern Interior...After almost 2 weeks of well below
normal, but not near record, temperatures a progressive weather
pattern will bring some above normal temperatures to the area for
the next few days. Expect the temperatures to rise overnight with
the low temperature tomorrow expected to be at midnight tonight
and temperatures continuing to rise through the day Thursday. The
decaying weather front will move over the interior Thursday
morning spreading some snow, up to 2 inches, to the central
interior Thursday morning and into the Fairbanks area by Thursday
afternoon, then to areas east in the evening. Expect some clearing
from the west starting Friday morning. The second weather front
will bring another chance for snow to the interior Saturday with
potential for another inch. Winds will generally be light, but
with a leeside trough developing north of the Alaska Range some
winds can be expected in the passes starting Thursday and persist
into Saturday. Gusts to around 40 mph can be expected in Broad and
Isabel passes.

&&

Coastal Hazards Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong northeast to
east winds develop over the eastern Bering Sea and Bering Strait
with the potential to produce freezing spray on the northeast
coast of St Lawrence Island.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-
AKZ215.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

&&

SDB DEC 16