Brisk Wind Advisory 212, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
329 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern now consists of a deep trough in the Bering
Sea and Northwest Pacific...A strong ridge over the Northeast
Pacific and mainland Alaska...and a second trough over Central
Canada. A series of strong short waves trough will move northeast
through the flow pattern over the West Coast and Interior of
Alaska through Fri. On the weekend several strong short waves will
push east and cause the long wave pattern to progress with the
long wave trough in the Bering moving over mainland Alaska by next
Mon. This will result in a stormy pattern over the Bering Sea and
West Coast through the end of this week and eventually bring an
end to the cold wave in the Interior later this week.

On short wave stretching from the Bering Strait to Utqiagvik will
move to Point Hope to Barter Island by 3am Tue and then stretch
east and weaken. There are snow showers with this feature along
the west coast which will diminish to flurries along the North
Slope.

A second short wave trough and coincident surface occluded front
that lies from west to east across the central Bering Sea will
move to Anadyr to Anvik by 3am Tue...to Red Dog to Denali by 3pm
Tue and then move east and weaken rapidly along the Alcan Border
by 3am Wed. There will be several inches of snow with this
feature along the west coast through tonight diminishing to
broken clouds and isolated snow showers as the feature moves
inland on Tue...and to just scattered clouds by Tue night as it
moves east through the long wave ridge and weakens.

Surface...
A 1045 mb high over the southeast Interior of Alaska with a ridge
stretching west across the Interior will weaken slowly through Tue
then build again Wed along the Alcan Border and north into the
Beaufort Sea. Will see weak drainage wind down the Yukon and
Tanana Rivers through Wed and drainage winds along the West Coast
such as at Kotzebue and Unalakleet through Wed as well.

A 1020 mb low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will move over the
southern CHukchi Sea as a 1020 mb low tonight and the dissipate
near Point Hope on Tue. This is mainly affecting winds and
blowing snow from the Bering Strait north to Point Hope.

An occluded front in the central Bering Sea is addressed with its
accompanying trough aloft in the aloft section above.

A low now develop south of Adak will deepen at bomb cyclogenisis
rate through tonight and move to the southern Bering by 3am as a
954 mb low...to the south central Bering as a 955 mb low by 3pm
Tue...to 300 nm west of St Matthew Island as a 972 mb low by 3pm
Wed...and then dissipate west of Anadyr Thu. The frontal system
with this feature is now an open wave but will move to the central
Bering Sea as an occluded front by 3pm Tue with a warm front
stretching from St Matthew Island to the Yukon Delta by 3pm Tue...
to Anadyr to Nunivak Island by 3am Wed with a warm front from the
northern Bering Sea tot he Yukon Delta...by 3pm Wed to the
Chukotsk Peninsula to Bethel...by 3am Thu to Point Hope to
Anvik...and by 3pm Thu to Point Lay to McGrath. Expect southeast
gale force winds along the front. Expect 2-4 inches of snow with
this features from the Seward Peninsula north and over the Western
Interior. Expect snow to change or mix with to rain quickly over
zones 213 and 214...but will be all snow from the Seward Pen
north. There could be blizzard conditions with the front from the
Bering Strait north along the coast to Point Hope. There is chance
of freezing rain over zones 212 214 and 215 with the front.
Blowing snow will be limited from the Seward Peninsula south due
to temperatures rising to near 30.

Another very strong storm will move into the Bering Sea Thu and
to the northern Bering Sea Fri. This could bring southeast storm
force winds and more rain and snow to the West Coast. This
strength of winds could cause high surf and ice piling up on
beaches on south facing shores Thu and Fri.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

JB DEC 16