Brisk Wind Advisory 197, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 PM AKDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Models... Current runs of the GFS/ECMWF/NAM models from the Jun
17/12Z forecast cycle are in good agreement out through 84 hours/4
PM Monday. GFS and NAM 12 hr QPF amounts are in general agreement
on amounts and area coverage through Sunday. GFS brings
precipitation eastward into the middle Tanana Valley and Denali
Sunday night and Monday whereas the NAM keeps these areas mainly
dry...more weight will be given to the ECMWF and NAM runs.

Upper air...
A strong upper level ridge currently extends from the Chukchi Sea
to Fairbanks. The ridge will be pushed eastward into the Yukon
Territory by Saturday afternoon and be replaced by a southwesterly
flow pattern as a weakening short wave trough moves northeastward
across the northern Alaska mainland. The ridge will continue on
eastward into Canada Saturday night and Sunday. 850 mb temperatures
under the ridge will be vary warm today, ranging from +10 to +16
degrees Celsius. The warmest air will move eastward into the Yukon
territory Saturday, but 850 mb temperatures of +10 to +14 degrees
Celsius will linger near the Canada border Saturday. 850 mb
temperatures will cool down to near seasonal normals as the ridge
exits eastward and is replaced by a trough. A short wave trough
moving eastward along the Aleutians will come into phase with an
upper low over the northern Bering Sea late Saturday night to form
a trough which will move to the central and eastern interior Monday.
The main low center will track southeastward to the northern
Bristol Bay coastal areas by Monday morning and move into the
northern Gulf of Alaska Tuesday. Another ridge will develop over
the Bering Sea Monday and build eastward into the interior by
Tuesday night.

Surface...
A 1015 mb high centered 200 miles northeast of Barter Island
will move eastward to Banks Island by Sunday evening, then
continue on eastward. A weak thermal trough across the eastern
interior will strengthen and move northward to the interior
Arctic slope then extend southeastward into the Yukon Territory
by late tonight. A 999 mb low will develop over the western
interior Arctic slope this evening, then move to 600 miles
north of Demarcation Point by Sunday morning. A 994 mb low
50 miles west of Gambell will remain nearly stationary through
Saturday then dissipate north of St Matthew Island by Monday
morning. High pressure ridging over then eastern North Gulf coast
will strengthen Saturday and Saturday night. This will increase
the pressure gradient across the eastern Alaska Range and produce
strong winds through passes west of the Tok cutoff in the eastern
Alaska Range.

Arctic Slope...
Showers developing over the western areas this evening, spreading
eastward to the Alcan border by Saturday afternoon. Showers
tapering off over the western areas Saturday afternoon.

Central and eastern interior... Very warm temperatures continuing
over all areas today and near the Alcan border Saturday. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northeast interior
Saturday afternoon and ridge as the ridge axis moves to the
northeast and allows moisture to infiltrate in from the southwest,
resulting in and increase in instability. As the warm ridge aloft
pushes eastward it will be replaced by cooler air moving in from
the southwest, with temperatures cooling to near seasonal normal
values. Gusty south winds will continue through Alaska range
passes west of the Tok cutoff. Wind gusts to 60 mph are expected
in eastern Alaska Range passes west of the Tok Cutoff Saturday
night and Sunday. Showers will spread northeastward over much of
the central interior tonight, becoming rain late Saturday night
with rain continuing through Sunday.

Western interior and west coast...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected through tonight over the
northwest interior and western Brooks Range in an area of
unstable air ahead of the incoming short wave trough. Rain
over St Lawrence Island tonight through Saturday night,
with mainly scattered to locally numerous showers over most other
areas. Rain developing over the western interior Saturday
night continuing Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty winds with humidities 25 percent or less will create red
flag conditions near Alaska Range west of the Tok cutoff this
evening, and in eastern Alaska Range passes west of the Tok cutoff
Saturday afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures and higher
humidities over most of the central and eastern interior Saturday.
Wetting rains likely over much of the central and western interior
Saturday night through Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No problem areas.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

RF JUN 16