Brisk Wind Advisory 185, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 AM AKDT WED MAY 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...BIG PICTURE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 90
HOURS. GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. DEEP FLOW
OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST. RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE. JUST GOING TO NUDGE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR
SO IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ARE A BIT HIGH. AGAIN TODAY WILL LEAN
ON THE NAM BUT BLEND IN SOME GFS AND SREF FOR THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEST COAST.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
CONTINUES TO BUILD TODAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA IS STALLED. HEIGHTS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER CLIMB TO AROUND 579
DAM BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER
TANANA AND UPPER YUKON VALLEYS. THE 530 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN TO 545 DAM THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
GETS ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. A 522 DAM CLOSED
LOW WILL MOVE EAST 75N 180 BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE LOW WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST TO BANKS ISLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SQUASHING THE RIDING OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE IS SQUASHED IT
ELONGATES EAST TO WEST AND WILL LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO
THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO CHUKOTKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850
HPA...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS
TEMPERATURES OVER FAIRBANKS WILL SURGE TO NEAR 10 CELSIUS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THE ZERO ISOTHERM PUSHED WEST TO LIE FROM BARROW
TO KALTAG TO DILLINGHAM BY THURSDAY MORNING. EAST OF BARROW THE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AS WELL AS THE ZERO ISOTHERM PUSHES NORTH
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES OVER BARTER ISLAND
RISE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE CELSIUS.

SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES WITH THE
STACKED LOW STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO TRAIN NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND WILL SLOWLY
FALL APART THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR LIES IN THE TANANA VALLEY. OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST WILL FALL APART BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WARM IN THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TO THE WEST OF BARROW. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND WITH A 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY. GOOD SCENARIO
FOR MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK IN THE BROOKS RANGE THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS HIGHS IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE MAY BE NEAR 60 DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS. STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HANGING AROUND
BARTER ISLAND BUT THAT SHOULD BE KICKED OUT LATER THIS MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS IN THE PLAINS ALONG THE COAST FROM
BARROW TO POINT LAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DRYING IN THE BERING STRAIT
COASTAL AREAS...OTHERWISE WET...WET...WET...TRAINING MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
SLIDES EAST IN THE THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY. RAIN TAPERING OFF
ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA...BUT UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE BROOKS RANGE
AND THE NORTHERN NULATO HILLS WILL BE THE AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AND
RAIN MIXED ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
ZONES 210 AND 211 AND FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR ZONE 208 AND 217
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AT 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET HERE...SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OVERALL PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL TAPER DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH AROUND SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EVEN DRIER AND WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE
INTERIOR AND THAT WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WET
OUT WEST OF TANANA AND CWR SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH FOR MOST AREAS SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES. ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINS ARE TAPERING OFF ON THE COAST...BUT THE
HEAVIER RAINS HAVE MOVED INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND THEY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED
AROUND THE DEERING AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BUT IT APPEARS TO ONLY
BE AROUND THE AIRPORT ACCESS ROADS AT THIS TIME. FLOOD ADVISORIES
CONTINUE FOR ZONES 210 AND 211...AND FLOOD WATCHES FOR ZONES 208
AND 217 REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR AKZ210-AKZ211.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ208-AKZ217.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215.

&&

SDB MAY 16