Brisk Wind Advisory 182, NWS Fairbanks, AK

956 
FZAK51 PAFG 102309
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
309 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-111415-
309 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
AND PRESENTLY LIES FROM NEAR CAPE LISBURNE SOUTH OVER NORTON
SOUND. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ225-111415-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
309 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT...DIMINISHING TOWARD MORNING. RAIN.
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-111415-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
309 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-111415-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
309 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-111415-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
309 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-111415-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
309 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

DJH/NTS MAY 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
241 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 84
HOURS BEFORE THEY START DIVERGING. ALL THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE DRAWN NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OVER THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. BUILDING RIDGE USHERS IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURE DATABASE. WILL LEAN ON THE NAM BUT BLEND IN SOME GFS
AND SREF FOR THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST COAST.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE IS
ENHANCING WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA STALLS.
HEIGHTS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER CLIMB TO AROUND 579 DAM BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER TANANA AND UPPER
YUKON VALLEYS. THE 520 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS
MORNING WILL WEAKEN TO 545 DAM THURSDAY NIGHT THEN GETS ABSORBED
INTO A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. A 522 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
EAST 75N 180 BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA. THE LOW CONTINUES EAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE SQUASHING THE RIDING OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. AT 850 HPA...MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES OVER
FAIRBANKS WILL SURGE TO NEAR 10 CELSIUS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THE ZERO ISOTHERM PUSHED WEST TO LIE FROM BARROW TO KALTAG TO
DILLINGHAM BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST AS THE STACKED LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A 995 MB CENTER. TRAINING
MOISTURE BAND OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PERSIST OVER THE AREA
INTO FRIDAY. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY LIES
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER YUKON VALLEY. THERMAL TROUGH
WILL STRENGTHEN AT THE SURFACE...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL SHUT OFF CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR. RELATIVELY
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH SLOPE.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO
THE EAST OF BARROW...BUT CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS OFFSHORE FLOW
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME HEAVY RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...ESPECIALLY THE
UPSLOPE AREAS. SOME SHOWERS IN THE PLAINS AND FROM BARROW WEST ON
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TODAY
EAST OF BARROW WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AND DO NOT EXPECT
IS TO RETURN FOR A FEW DAYS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
AT OF ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO
EXPECT MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE EAST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS. LOOK FOR INCREASED RUNOFF WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS SOME INLAND AND BROOKS RANGE LOCATIONS SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WET...WET...WET...TRAINING
MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE BROOKS
RANGE AND ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA MAY SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THIS COMBINED WITH SNOW RUNOFF AND
STILL FROZEN GROUND COULD CREATE ISSUES SO THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH
OUT FOR ZONE 208...210...211...AND 217 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10
TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING CONTINUES TODAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK EAST OF TANANA. TEMPERATURES START CLIMBING TODAY AND
WILL PEAK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR NEAR 80
DEGREES. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY TO 25 MPH...BUT GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE
5 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AND WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WE
WILL SEE SOME WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY
WEDNESDAY GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH IN ZONE 225. WITH THE STRONG
HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS WEEK. WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...CLOUDY WITH RAIN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SO SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY QUIET OUT WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK TO THE WEST OF TANANA COULD CREATE ISSUES AS STREAM GO TO
BANKFULL. NEAR RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
GROUND STILL FROZEN IN SOME AREAS AND SNOWPACK STILL IN PLACE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FLOOD WATCHES IN PLACE FOR ZONE
208...210...211...AND 217. THE BENDELTON MOUNTAINS AND OTHER
UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND IN THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO LOOK
AT THE NULATO HILLS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE TRAINING
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ217.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAY 16