Brisk Wind Advisory 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A STRONG RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CANADA AND MAINLAND ALASKA ALONG WITH THE DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING NORTH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IN THIS FLOW...BUT WEAK DOWN
SLOPE FLOW MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IF IT DOES
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK IN THIS PATTEN WHILE
THE NORTH SLOPE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE WEST
COAST WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WINDY FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM ZERO TO -2C OVER YUKON DELTA TO
-12C OVER NE ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY THEN WARMING OVER
SOUTHERN INTERIOR MON WHILE THE NORTH SLOPE COOLS.

SURFACE...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES FROM THE NORTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE COAST MON AND PERSIST THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL
CAUSE EAST WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST FROM WAINWRIGHT EAST TO PERSIST.

A 968 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM
WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND AS A 970 MB LOW BY 3PM SUN AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN IN PLACE. MAX GALE FORCE EAST WINDS OVER NORTON
SOUND AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE LOW AND
WILL DECREASE IN THAT ARE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES WEST.

A WEATHER FROM STRETCHING FROM THAT LOW TO GAMBELL TO EAGLE WILL
MOVE TO KOTZEBUE TO FORT YUKON BY 3PM SUN AND THEN DISSIPATE ON
PLACE. EXPECT ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

A SECOND TRAILING FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE BERING STRAIT TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 3PM SUN...AND THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. EXPECT SNOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH 1-2
INCHES ACCUMULATION THROUGH MON. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT OVER THE WEST COAST. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
MON.

A SECOND STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY
3AM MON...TO NEAR BETHEL BY 3PM MON...AND TO THE YUKON DELTA AS A
984 MB LOW BY 3AM TUE. A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THIS LOW
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MON AND TO THE BERING STRAIT
TO EAGLE BY 3AM TUE. WILL SEE SNOW OF 1-2 INCHES NEAR THE LOW AND
A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE AHEAD OF THIS
SECOND LOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION... MODELS INITIALIZE WELL ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE
THE 06Z HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTER OF 966 MB IN THE SE
BERING SEA WHICH ALL THE MODELS SHOW AS 975 MB IN THE SAME
LOCATION AT 06Z.SINCE MODELS ALL INITIALIZED MUCH TOO WEEK ON THIS
FEATURE WILL ADD5KT TO THE WINDS AROUND THIS LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA AND WEST COAST TODAY.

MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MON AND THEN THE GFS A BIT
FASTER WITH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FEATURES. FAVOR THE FASTER GFS
DUE THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ223.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JB JAN 16