Brisk Wind Advisory 173, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1203 PM AKDT SUN APR 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE. SURFACE INITIALIZED
WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. SURFACE IS A MORE CONFUSED AS THE
MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH A BIT...BUT OVERALL THEY
SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THEN SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH 546 DAM
HEIGHTS AS FAR WEST AS THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...AND 552 HEIGHTS OVER THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY TODAY. THE RIDGE PULLS BACK A BIT BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
546 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE RIDGE IS PULLING BACK
BECAUSE A 507 DAM LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS SPINNING A
SHORTWAVE NORTH THAT WILL BE OVER THE GULF COAST MONDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING...AND
CONTINUE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST
AND BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PUSH
THE RIDGE A BIT TO THE NORTH WITH THE AXIS MOVING OVER THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A 510
DAM LOW MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS PUSHING A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE.

SURFACE...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES NORTH SO
DOES THE THERMAL TROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AT
THE SURFACE AROUND A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED HERE.
STRATUS IS PRETTY OBVIOUS ON THE 24/1319Z SPORT NPP VIIRS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGE AND COVERS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL
AS THE INLAND PLAINS AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE BARTER ISLAND AREA...BUT OTHERWISE NOT SEEING ANY REASON
FOR THE STRATUS TO GO AWAY. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES WITH LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. BROOKS RANGE WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
WIND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL PICK UP A BIT
MONDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND TO 15 TO 30 MPH ON TUESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET OUT HERE ALSO. SOME
CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION AS THEY ARE MOSTLY MID CLOUDS. WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN THE DECAYING FRONTAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ACROSS
THE LOW YUKON DELTA THIS WEEK PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH FOR
MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTION OF COURSE IS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
THE BERING STRAIT COAST WHICH WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE A COUPLE MORE
DAYS OF REALLY NICE WARM AND DRY DAYS. THERE WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN IS STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE UPPER YUKON AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT IS PUSHED NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT
SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE AROUND THE THERMAL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RIDGE
ALOFT AND THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY. WEDNESDAY
IS LOOKING PRETTY UNSTABLE OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MAY BE THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

SDB APR 16