Brisk Wind Advisory 168, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
200 PM AKDT WED APR 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS.

UPPER AIR...RIDGING FROM THE EAST WILL EXPAND WEST TO COVER ALL
OF NORTHERN ALASKA BY FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MAY
SEND A LITTLE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT THIS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE RANGE WILL DRY OUT THE
AREA.

SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ARCTIC
AROUND A 1046 MB HIGH NEAR 80N 150W. A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TO BARTER ISLAND AND TO NEAR MACKENZIE BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. A 988 MB LOW
PRESSURE 200 NM WEST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES TO 3/4 MILE HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AT PRUDHOE BAY TODAY. THE LOW VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO
1/2 MILE TONIGHT AS EAST WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE MORE...THEREFORE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONE 203 FOR TONIGHT.
WINDS OVER ZONE 204 ARE JUST AS STRONG AS ZONE 203...THOUGH FOR
WHATEVER REASON...LACK OF FRESH SNOW?...VISIBILITIES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE 1/2 MILE. A TROUGH WILL FORM TONIGHT FROM THE BROOKS RANGE
TO ZONE 204 AND TO NEAR MACKENZIE BAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FURTHER
INCREASE OF WINDS FOR ZONE 204 AND MARINE ZONE 245. AS WINDS
INCREASE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD LOWER TO 1/2 MILE IN ZONE 204
THURSDAY MORNING...THUS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ZONE 204 BEGINNING 6AM THURSDAY AND EXTENDING TO 6AM FRIDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN STRONGER OFFSHORE...THEREFORE A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT ZONE.

WEST COAST...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH WEATHER ACTIVITY FOR THE WEST
COAST TODAY AND EVEN LESS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THAT AREA. THERE WAS LOCAL FOG WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AT SAVOONGA EARLIER TODAY...BUT THIS DID NOT LAST
MUCH BEYOND 3 HOURS AND WAS ONLY REPORTED FROM SAVOONGA. WEB CAMS
AGREED WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATION OF LOW VISIBILITY.

INTERIOR...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE
ONLY POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE HILLS THIS EVENING NORTH OF
FAIRBANKS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH FROM A GULF OF ALASKA LOW MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE INTERIOR LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY. ANY MOISTURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH'S WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE TANANA
VALLEY. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

DA APR 16