Brisk Wind Advisory 161, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
425 AM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A WEAK LONG WAVE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN US TO NORTH OF
THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL REBUILD NEXT WEEK. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY NEAR NORMAL. BY THE NEXT WEEK
AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

A LOW ALOFT NEAR KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
TODAY...TO THE BERING STRAIT THU...AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
FRI. THERE IS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS.

A LOW ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA THU...AND OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE OF
ALASKA FRI. EXPECT FLURRIES WITH THIS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE OF
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC ON FRI.

SURFACE...
A 1040 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH FRI. THIS IS CAUSING EAST WINDS 20-30KT FROM WAINWRIGHT
EAST...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT IN ZONES 203 AND 204. THIS IS CAUSING
LOCAL VSBY OF 1/2 MILE IN BLOWING SNOW SO WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 203...204 AND NORTHERN 206. THESE
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

AN ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO KIVALINA TO
NORTHWAY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY AND MOVE TO NUNIVAK
ISLAND TO GALENA TO CHICKEN BY 4AM THU...TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TO
TANANA TO EAGLE BY 4PM THU...AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY INTO FRI.
NE WINDS 15G25KT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM YAKUTAT TO WHITEHORSE WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE BY 4PM WED...TO DENALI TO CHICKEN BY 4AM
THU...TO DENALI TO EAGLE BY 4PM THU...AND TO MCGRATH TO JUST
NORTH OF EAGLE BY 4AM FRI AND THEN STATIONARY. THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE
WITH ALL SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT. WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH FRI.
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WE
ARE USING A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND ECMF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEE ABOVE SURFACE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB APR 16