Brisk Wind Advisory 152, NWS Fairbanks, AK

503 
FZAK51 PAFG 042121
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
121 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-051215-
121 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1034 MB HIGH 280 NM N OF DEMARCATION POINT WILL DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC CENTERED AROUND 79N BY 4AM WED. AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ225-051215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
121 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-051215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
121 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-051215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
121 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-051215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
121 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-051215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
121 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

JK APR 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
120 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...AGREEMENT REMAINS PRETTY GOOD THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THEN...LIKE YESTERDAY...THEY HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOW
OVER THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY ARE CLUSTERING BETTER WITH THE
LATEST RUN. THE MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY WHERE A LITTLE QUICK IN
MOVING THE BERING STRAIT LOW NORTH...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS TRUE
AGAIN TODAY SO WILL SLOW DOWN ITS PROGRESSION JUST A LITTLE. GOOD
INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE CURRENT MODELS AND DATABASE FOR THE SHORT TERM LEANING
TOWARD CONTINUITY AND MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
CONTINUES WITH 534 DAM HEIGHTS STRETCHING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA...BERING STRAIT...AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. 518 DAM LOW OVER
KOLYUCHIN BAY ON THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
WRANGEL ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING AT 520 DAM...THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HEIGHTS FALL TO 515 DAM. A 514
DAM LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI WILL MOVE EAST TO 200 NM SOUTH OF
UNIMAK ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER SAND POINT AT 517 DAM
BY TUESDAY MORNING AND STARTS FILLING.

SURFACE...LOWS OVER THE WEST COAST HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE
LOW AS IT MOVES OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 978 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL
MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...AND TO 100 NM
EAST OF SAND POINT BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 988 MB. A 1033 MB 300 NM
NORTH OF BARROW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO 250 NM NORTH
OF MACKENZIE BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH TO 400 NM
NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN UP
TONIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI MOVES NORTH AND WEST AND THE
RIDGES SLIDES SOUTHEAST...THEN STARTS TO RELAX FROM THE WEST AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND THEN IN THE EAST AS THE HIGH DRIFT NORTH.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
FORECAST...GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP SO WINDS ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST ARE COMING UP AND BLOWING SNOW IS BECOMING A
PROBLEM. WILL CONTINUE ALL THE ADVISORIES FOR NOW AS THE OTHER
AREAS WILL START BEING IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW AND RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY. EXPECT SOME SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING BUT IT WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BUT ENOUGH
FOR THE BLOWING SNOW ISSUE. WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...SO CURRENTLY NO WIND CHILL ISSUES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY WITH YET ANOTHER
DISSIPATING WAVE MOVING NORTH THAT WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS NORTH
OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TONIGHT...AND AS
FAR NORTH AS POINT LAY TOMORROW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE WEST AND REMAIN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BERING
STRAIT...AND CHUKCHI SEA AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES. INLAND AREAS
HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS. PATCHY MORNING FOG MAY BE AN
ISSUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE INLAND AREAS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF THE YUKON
RIVER...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT INCREASING FROM
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TO GET WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH WINDS AROUND DELTA
JUNCTION EAST AROUND 20 MPH GUST TO 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50
DURING THE AFTERNOONS FROM TANANA SOUTH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235.

&&

SDB APR 16