Brisk Wind Advisory 150, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND FROM RUN
TO RUN IN THE SHORT RANGE AS WELL AS THE MID TERM MODELS.
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND FROM
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS EXIST ON FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH. THE
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS AND THE 06Z
MODELS VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 518 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
WILL SLOWLY MERGE WITH AN 516 DAM LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. THE ELONGATED
LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
FROM KOTZEBUE TO JUNEAU WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE ALONG A
WAINWRIGHT TO YAKUTAT LINE MONDAY MORNING AND ALONG A BARROW TO
WHITEHORSE LINE TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AS A
1007 MB LOW THIS EVENING AND MERGE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA MONDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA AND BERING STRAIT AND
A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED 250 NM NORTH OF
BARROW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SLOPE TODAY AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TO BE
LOCATED 200 NM NORTH OF THE MCKENZIE DELTA BY MONDAY MORNING.

WEST COAST...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY SOUTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS A WEAK FRONT RETREATS WEST INTO NORTON
SOUND. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.

INTERIOR...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING TODAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH.
A FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH TODAY AND WITH SNOW DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
THIS EVENING.

NORTH SLOPE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ213-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC APR 16