Brisk Wind Advisory 145, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
246 AM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD IS MINIMAL
BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AS WELL AS FROM RUN TO RUN IN BOTH THE
SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE MID TERM. MODELS SPREAD IS REASONABLE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS WELL.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHEAST TO THE PANHANDLE WILL SLIP SLOWLY TO
THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH OVER THE LOWER YK DELTA FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER
NORTON SOUND SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE BERING STRAIT AND IS ABSORBED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE SURFACE A 985 MB LOW CURRENTLY NEAR COLD BAY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND
FRIDAY EVENING AND WESTERN NORTON SOUND SATURDAY MORNING AS A 994
MB LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST TO BE NEAR ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AS A 999 MB LOW SATURDAY EVENING. A 1035 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 75 N AND 170W WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH WILL CREATE A STRONG
GRADIENT NORTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND THE BERING STRAIT AND NEAR POINT
HOPE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT
WESTERN ALASKA WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
HAVE ABATED IN ZONE 212 HOWEVER AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW MOVES
NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER YK DELTA THIS MORNING EXPECT VISIBILITY TO
DROP AS SNOW AND WINDS INCREASE OVER THE LOWER YK DELTA AND THE
SEWARD PENINSULA AND KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY. WINTER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST FOR BLOWING SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE FOR
SNOW. ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE BROOKS RANGE AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THESE AREAS TODAY AND SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RIPEN AND MELT THE SNOWPACK.
SNOW DEPTH CONTINUES TO DROP OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH
BARE GROUND BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON SOUTH FACING SLOPES. COLD
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTH SLOPE WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS CLOUDS MOVE
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE WITH BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVER ZONES 205 AND 201.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC APR 16