Brisk Wind Advisory 139, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
224 PM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS FOR FEATURES ALOFT.
SURFACE FEATURES SHOW SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE VARIES SUBSTANTIALLY FOR NORTHERN ALASKA BEGINNING
MONDAY AS WELL AS FREEZING LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE FROM UPPER LOW DIRECTLY
NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND NEAR 80N DIVING SOUTH THROUGH GALENA AND
THEN TO NEAR DILLINGHAM THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO ABOUT THE ALCAN
BORDER BY LATE SUN NIGHT WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH TO
PUSH THE LONG WAVE NORTHWARD AND REDUCE IT TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW MODEL
RUNS DO NOT SUGGEST AS MUCH PRECIPITATION AS PREVIOUS RUNS DID AS
IT SENDS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NORTHWARD TO DUMP DECENT MOISTURE.

SURFACE...SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND ALOFT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIR WILL BECOME
MORE MODIFIED AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND LOSES ITS STRONG COLD FRONT
CHARACTERISTICS. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND COMBINED WITH THE DECENT MOISTURE MOVING UP
FROM THE PACIFIC THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER A
PORTION OF THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES. TO COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO
MORE IS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARM
ADVECTION. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE INITIALLY BUT THEN BECOME RAIN MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ARCTIC SLOPE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL AS THE WEST
COAST TONIGHT. MODELS ARE NOW MOVING MOST OF THE MOISTURE AWAY
FROM THE WESTERN ALASKA ZONES FOR THE INITIAL SHORT WAVES FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BUT CREEP THE MOISTURE BACK IN FOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

CF MAR 16