Brisk Wind Advisory 135, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
121 PM AKDT MON MAR 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD IS SMALL IN
BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND MID TERM FOR BOTH RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN
MODEL FAMILIES. MODEL SPREAD IS REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY 520 DAM
AND CENTERED OVER SAND POINT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTH AND WEST FROM NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG 75N
AND STRETCHING FROM THE DATELINE EASTWARD TO NEAR BANKS ISLAND
WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST TO BE ABOUT 1030 MB ALONG
75N AND 140W WEDNESDAY. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN ALASKA WITH MINIMAL AS VERY WEAK WAVES ROTATE AROUND A
980 MB LOW THAT WILL ROTATE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YK
DELTA TUESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT VERY LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES THIS
NEXT WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. A WEAK LOW ROTATING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
BERING SEA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC MAR 16