Brisk Wind Advisory 130, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
109 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12 ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 18 Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
MINIMAL IN THE SHORT RANGE AND REASONABLE IN THE MID RANGE.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD ENTERS THE MODEL SUITE BOTH FROM RUN TO
RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES BY 72 HRS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 516 DAM LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MCGRATH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TO SOUTHWEST TO BE CENTERED NEAR
SLEETMUTE THIS EVENING AND NEAR BETHEL SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR SAND POINT
SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND WEST AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE YUKON AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OVER FAIRBANKS WILL WARM FROM NEAR -18 CELSIUS
SATURDAY TO NEAR ZERO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA BUILD NORTH AND WEST INTO THE YUKON AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL HOWEVER IN THE THE ZERO TO 4 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1052 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR 75N AND EXTENDING FROM 140W TO 170E WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO 1048 MB AND DRIFT TO THE EAST TO BE CENTERED 250 NM
NORTH OF BARROW SUNDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN FURTHER TO 1044 SUNDAY
EVENING. A 995 MB LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CORDOVA WILL WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST. A FRONT STRETCHING NORTH OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY ALONG A CORDOVA TO FAIRBANKS TO EAGLE LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR. MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT IS OVER RUNNING A COLD AIRMASS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIPS TO THE SOUTH TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. A 1007 MB
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ZONE 224 WHERE BEST LIFT ALOFT HAS MOVED TO THE
WEST AND HEAVY SNOWFALL IS QUICKLY WINDING DOWN. WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE ENDED WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
SATELLITE AND WEB CAMS AS WELL AS OBS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO
VERIFY HEAVIEST SNOW TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AND SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND FORTY
MILE COUNTRY. RADAR ALSO VERIFYING HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS TRACKING
OVER THE HILLS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS.

THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1052 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE STATE
COMBINED WITH THE 995 MB LOW NEAR CORDOVA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE. THE GUSTY WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR WIND CHILL IN ZONES 206 AND 218. WIND
CHILLS THROUGH ATIGUN FLIRTING WITH WARNING CRITERIA OF 60 BELOW
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS TIGHT
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE. WESTERN BROOKS RANGE PASSES AND NORTH
SLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL CRITERIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC MAR 16