Brisk Wind Advisory 129, NWS Fairbanks, AK

042 
FZAK51 PAFG 182321
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
321 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-191400-
321 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1052 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 75N 170W WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN.
RIDGING FROM THE HIGH EXTENDS E TO BANKS ISLAND AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
NEARSHORE WATERS AND MACKENZIE BAY WILL DISSIPATE BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ225-191400-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
321 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-191400-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
321 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-191400-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
321 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-191400-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
321 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE
EVENING.
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-191400-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
321 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE TOWARD MORNING. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

DJH/CCC/SDB MAR 16

530 
FZAK51 PAFG 191306
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
506 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-200030-
506 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THROUGH TUE. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA BY LATE SUN. 

$$

PKZ225-200030-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
506 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-200030-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
506 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-200030-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
506 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-200030-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
506 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-200030-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
506 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

MAR 16

090 
FZAK51 PAFG 192313
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
313 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-201215-
313 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THROUGH TUE. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA BY LATE SUN.

$$

PKZ225-201215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
313 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT N WINDS 35 KT SOUTH OF CAPE
LISBURNE.  BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-201215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
313 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. FOG AND BLOWING
SNOW.
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-201215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
313 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-201215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
313 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. FOG
AND BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING.
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-201215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
313 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATER
THIS EVENING...E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CCC/DJH MAR 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z ANALYSIS AND VERIFIED
WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD IS MINIMAL IN BOTH
THE SHORT RANGE AND IN THE MID TERM. MODEL SPREAD IN THE LONG
RANGE IS VERY REASONABLE WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAJOR FEATURES.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 524 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BETTLES
AND ANCHORING A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM WAINWRIGHT TO
FAIRBANKS WILL MIGRATE COUNTER CLOCKWISE TO THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN BARTAR ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHWEST TO BE NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS
FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR TANANA SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWEST TO BE LOCATED NEAR MCGRATH
SATURDAY EVENING AND IN THE LOWER YK DELTA SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 850 MB THE COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK
AND WILL RETREAT TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE AS
A WARMER AIRMASS MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR AS A WARMING CHINOOK FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE LATE TONIGHT. THE DEEP MOISTURE
LAYER WILL OVERRUN THE COLDER AIRMASS TO THE WEST WITH OVERUNNING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OVER THE 40 MILE
COUNTRY...THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND AND IN PARTICULAR WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW TO WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. 8 TO 12 INCH STORM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA
VALLEY. 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE 223 TO THE EAST OF DELTA
JUNCTION. AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES NORTH AND WEST SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR INCLUDING FAIRBANKS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEADLINE POTENTIAL OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR SATURDAY FOR SNOW AT VALLEY LEVEL AND FOR BLOWING
SNOW OVER INTERIOR SUMMITS. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT
SUMMIT LEVEL AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE A 975 MB LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 75N
AND THE DATELINE INCREASES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR STRONG WINDS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS THE WEST COAST
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ224-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

CCC MAR 16