Brisk Wind Advisory 128, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z ANALYSIS AND VERIFIED
WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD IS MINIMAL IN BOTH
THE SHORT RANGE AND IN THE MID TERM. MODEL SPREAD IN THE LONG
RANGE IS VERY REASONABLE WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAJOR FEATURES.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 524 DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BETTLES
AND ANCHORING A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM WAINWRIGHT TO
FAIRBANKS WILL MIGRATE COUNTER CLOCKWISE TO THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN BARTAR ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHWEST TO BE NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS
FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR TANANA SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWEST TO BE LOCATED NEAR MCGRATH
SATURDAY EVENING AND IN THE LOWER YK DELTA SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 850 MB THE COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK
AND WILL RETREAT TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE AS
A WARMER AIRMASS MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR AS A WARMING CHINOOK FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE LATE TONIGHT. THE DEEP MOISTURE
LAYER WILL OVERRUN THE COLDER AIRMASS TO THE WEST WITH OVERUNNING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OVER THE 40 MILE
COUNTRY...THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND AND IN PARTICULAR WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW TO WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. 8 TO 12 INCH STORM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA
VALLEY. 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE 223 TO THE EAST OF DELTA
JUNCTION. AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES NORTH AND WEST SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR INCLUDING FAIRBANKS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEADLINE POTENTIAL OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR SATURDAY FOR SNOW AT VALLEY LEVEL AND FOR BLOWING
SNOW OVER INTERIOR SUMMITS. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT
SUMMIT LEVEL AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE A 975 MB LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 75N
AND THE DATELINE INCREASES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR STRONG WINDS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS THE WEST COAST
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ224-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

CCC MAR 16