Brisk Wind Advisory 125, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
104 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL
FAMILIES AS WELL AS FROM RUN TO RUN REMAINS REASONABLE IN BOTH THE
SHORT RANGE AS WELL AS THE MID TERM. MODEL SPREAD BECOMES LARGE
WITH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS
SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA SATURDAY AND CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY WITH AXIS FROM PABR TO PAFA. A COLDER AIRMASS
IS POISED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ALASKA AND WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. 850
MB TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY NEAR 20 BELOW ON THE NORTH SLOPE WILL
DROP TO NEAR 26 BELOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 5 BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
BELOW SUNDAY AND TO NEAR 15 BELOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COLD
TROUGH WITH A PRUDHOE BAY TO MCGRATH AXIS MONDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST OVER DEMARCATION POINT TO BETTLES TO MCGRATH TUESDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL PUSH IN OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ALONG A PARC TO PAFA
LINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A 979 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 55N AND 140W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS
A 987 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING. A 1028 HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NORTH IN THE EASTERN SIBERIAN SEA WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST AND WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND BERING STRAIT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND
FLURRIES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY. THE ARCTIC FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE INTERIOR AND WILL LIE
ALONG A MCGRATH TO FAIRBANKS TO FORT YUKON LINE BY MONDAY EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS FRONT
STALLS OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC MAR 16